RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 9 charted matches · 2022–2025

Francisco Comesana

Archetype: High-risk · Runs around the backhand

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 63.9% ±3.4 raw 62.4% · tour 63.4% · 635 points
Return points won 36.3% ±3.4 raw 33.9% · tour 36.6% · 593 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice −0.16 ±0.12 better than 19% of ATP · raw −0.15
Shot selection −0.38 ±0.41 better than 18% of ATP · raw −0.37
Execution −0.69 ±0.53 better than 37% of ATP · raw −0.50
Points left on the table 2.92 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 24% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 2,918 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Francisco Comesana goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 183 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 25% 49.3%±10.1 47.6%
BH through the middle 21% 36.9%±10.3 43.7%
BH slice crosscourt 21% 44.9%±10.7 42.5%
BH down the line 13% 37.8%±12.2 46.4%
BH slice through the middle 8% 38.3%±13.7 35.1%
FH inside-out 6% 49.6%±14.8 51.8%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 112 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH through the middle 38% 38.6%±10.1 41.5%
FH crosscourt 26% 43.5%±11.7 46.6%
FH down the line 15% 35.0%±12.9 44.7%
FH slice through the middle 9% 26.4%±13.2 24.5%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 107 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH through the middle 22% 53.2%±12.4 47.0%
FH crosscourt 20% 57.4%±12.7 52.7%
FH down the line 14% 52.3%±13.9 51.5%
BH through the middle 11% 48.0%±14.5 46.8%

Return +1: drive to your backhand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 86 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 23% 48.5%±13.0 46.9%
BH through the middle 21% 46.3%±13.3 43.0%
BH slice through the middle 16% 42.7%±14.0 32.6%
BH slice crosscourt 16% 44.6%±14.0 40.9%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +7 How much less varied Francisco Comesana's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 54 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 36% 47% ▲ 74% / 73%
Body 6% 7% 60% / 63%
T 57% 47% ▼ 75% / 75%

318 normal · 15 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 40% 23% ▼ 72% / 73%
Body 10% 10% 58% / 63%
T 50% 67% ▲ 69% / 72%

262 normal · 39 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide37% 68.4%±6.2 n=123 50% ▲
Body6% 61.5%±11.2 n=21 0% ▼
T57% 63.2%±5.4 n=189 50% ▼

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.35).
Optimal mix: +0.6 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide38% 60.1%±6.7 n=113 34% ▼
Body10% 54.9%±10.6 n=30 0% ▼
T52% 61.1%±5.8 n=158 66% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.49).
Optimal mix: +0.5 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.54 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: +1.7±4.3 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (327 repeats, 289 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 23 36% −1.0±10.8
1stAd courtT 76 26% −2.2±7.0
1stAd courtWide 74 22% −5.0±6.7
1stDeuce courtBody 37 33% −3.9±9.4
1stDeuce courtT 87 24% −1.5±6.5
1stDeuce courtWide 82 25% −2.0±6.7
2ndAd courtBody 46 47% −2.3±9.4
2ndAd courtT 23 52% +3.1±11.3
2ndAd courtWide 42 48% −0.4±9.7
2ndDeuce courtBody 45 54% +5.3±9.5
2ndDeuce courtT 40 51% +1.6±9.8
2ndDeuce courtWide 18 45% −3.4±11.8

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Francisco Comesana wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. FH through the middle → FH crosscourt → FH through the middle used 1.1% · won 49% · +2.5±13.0 vs own baseline · +11.2 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

Wide 1st serve · deuce court+2.4123
T 1st serve · deuce court+2.1189
T 1st serve · ad court+0.3158

Most exposed to

Wide 1st serve · deuce court−1.0122
FH to their forehand · rally−0.9164
T 1st serve · deuce court−0.7142
Wide 1st serve · ad court+1.1136
FH to their backhand · serve +1+1.5128

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, Reilly Opelka, Nick Kyrgios, Quentin Halys, Nicolas Jarry

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the ATP average, in standard deviations.

Through the middle35%
1st serve in70%
T serves · ad52%
T serves · deuce57%
Chipped returns31%
Drop shots / shot3.2%
Backhand slice37%
Deep returns31%
Run-around forehands22%
BH down the line22%
Points at net12%
Forehand share53%
Unforced errors / shot9.7%
Point-ending shots23.1%
Serve & volley4%
Avg rally length3.8
FH down the line26%
Wide serves · deuce37%
Wide serves · ad38%

Plays most like

  1. Botic Van De Zandschulp 2019–2026 plan v
  2. Nick Kyrgios 2013–2025 plan v
  3. Nuno Borges 2021–2026 plan v
  4. Mackenzie Mcdonald 2015–2025 plan v
  5. Zhizhen Zhang 2019–2026 plan v
  6. Aleksandar Kovacevic 2021–2026 plan v
  7. Jesper De Jong 2021–2026 plan v
  8. Arthur Rinderknech 2021–2026 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Andrei Pavel 1999–2006
  2. Tommy Haas 1996–2017
  3. Andy Roddick 2001–2012

Charted matches