Rome GA CH · R32 · Hard · 11 Jul 2022
Alexis Galarneau v Billy Harris
57–28 in points · Alexis Galarneau won
Why it went the way it did
Alexis Galarneau won 14.0 more points than Billy Harris relative to what the serve alone predicted. Billy Harris's biggest leaks: return execution −4.4, serve 2nd execution −3.0, backhand execution −2.0.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Alexis Galarneau | Billy Harris | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | −0.1 | −2.0 | −2.0 | −0.4 | −0.1 | −1.1 | −1.6 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −3.0 | −3.1 |
| Return | +0.1 | +0.3 | +1.1 | +1.5 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | −4.4 | −4.3 |
| Forehand | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +1.1 | +1.4 | +0.3 | +0.6 | −0.4 | +0.4 |
| Backhand | +0.2 | +0.1 | +2.3 | +2.6 | +0.5 | +0.1 | −2.0 | −1.5 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −0.7 | −1.1 | −1.7 | ±0.0 | −0.9 | −1.1 | −2.0 |
| Net | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.2 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.4 | +0.8 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | +0.5 | −0.6 | +2.3 | +2.2 | +0.3 | −0.1 | −12.1 | −11.9 |
Set by set
| Set | Alexis Galarneau | Billy Harris | Net, Alexis | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −0.5 | −6.5 | +6.0 | |
| 2 | +2.7 | −5.3 | +8.0 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Alexis Galarneau serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 52% 77% | 4% 100% | 44% 64% |
| 2 | 53% 100% | 11% 50% | 37% 71% |
Within sets +1.04 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Billy Harris serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 24% 83% | 24% 33% | 52% 38% |
| 2 | 44% 43% | 38% 17% | 19% 67% |
Within sets −0.85 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Alexis Galarneau
2.3 points left on the table across 127 shots 1.81 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×3; BH down the line rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.16 pts
Billy Harris
2.5 points left on the table across 143 shots 1.76 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH crosscourt ×8; BH down the line rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your middle hit FH down the line ×9; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts