ATP · Right-handed · 4 charted matches · 2022–2024
Alexis Galarneau
Against an average opponent
Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.
Shot expected value
The share of points Alexis Galarneau goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.
Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side
position worth 46% to the average player · 122 shots
| Option | Used | Win % | Tour |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH crosscourt | 39% | 46.4%±9.9 | 47.6% |
| BH through the middle | 20% | 46.1%±12.2 | 43.7% |
| BH down the line | 13% | 56.3%±13.6 | 46.4% |
| BH slice crosscourt | 11% | 47.0%±14.3 | 42.5% |
Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side
position worth 44% to the average player · 78 shots
| Option | Used | Win % | Tour |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 37% | 45.5%±11.7 | 41.5% |
| FH crosscourt | 32% | 56.3%±12.2 | 46.6% |
| FH down the line | 31% | 47.6%±12.4 | 44.7% |
Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side
position worth 44% to the average player · 77 shots
| Option | Used | Win % | Tour |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 38% | 43.4%±11.6 | 41.4% |
| FH down the line | 27% | 51.1%±12.8 | 44.8% |
| FH crosscourt | 26% | 50.9%±13.0 | 46.9% |
Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle
position worth 51% to the average player · 73 shots
| Option | Used | Win % | Tour |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH down the line | 37% | 51.7%±12.0 | 51.5% |
| FH through the middle | 27% | 53.5%±13.0 | 47.0% |
| FH crosscourt | 23% | 50.1%±13.5 | 52.7% |
Serve under pressure
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Usage | Break pt | Won when in |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 47% | 75% ▲ | 69% / 73% |
| Body | 19% | 25% | 65% / 63% |
| T | 34% | 0% ▼ | 68% / 75% |
154 normal · 4 break-point 1st serves
Ad court
| 1st serve | Usage | Break pt | Won when in |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 57% | 38% ▼ | 67% / 73% |
| Body | 10% | 8% | 61% / 63% |
| T | 33% | 54% ▲ | 76% / 72% |
118 normal · 26 break-point 1st serves
Is the serve mix in equilibrium?
Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Usage | Points won |
|---|---|---|
| Wide | 47% | 58.3%±7.9 n=75 |
| Body | 20% | 60.5%±10.3 n=31 |
| T | 33% | 54.5%±9.0 n=52 |
Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.60).
Ad court
| 1st serve | Usage | Points won |
|---|---|---|
| Wide | 53% | 61.8%±7.7 n=77 |
| Body | 10% | 58.4%±12.2 n=14 |
| T | 37% | 67.5%±8.5 n=53 |
Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.25).
Return by serve direction
Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.
| Serve | Court | Direction | Points | Won | vs tour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | Ad court | Body | 12 | 48% | +10.9±12.7 | |
| 1st | Ad court | T | 27 | 34% | +6.0±10.3 | |
| 1st | Ad court | Wide | 32 | 26% | −1.2±9.2 | |
| 1st | Deuce court | Body | 11 | 37% | −0.1±12.4 | |
| 1st | Deuce court | T | 30 | 26% | +0.8±9.3 | |
| 1st | Deuce court | Wide | 41 | 26% | −1.6±8.5 | |
| 2nd | Ad court | Body | 43 | 52% | +2.4±9.6 | |
| 2nd | Ad court | T | 8 | 55% | +5.4±13.3 | |
| 2nd | Ad court | Wide | 17 | 56% | +8.0±11.9 | |
| 2nd | Deuce court | Body | 41 | 56% | +6.9±9.7 | |
| 2nd | Deuce court | T | 5 | 48% | −1.4±13.9 | |
| 2nd | Deuce court | Wide | 17 | 54% | +6.0±12.0 |
Signature patterns
Recurring sequences that win more than Alexis Galarneau's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.
Serve → +1
- Not enough data
Return
- Not enough data
Rally, consecutive own shots
- FH down the line → BH crosscourt used 7.1% · won 52% · +1.7±11.8 vs own baseline
- BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 7.8% · won 50% · −0.3±11.5 vs own baseline
Discovered sequences
Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Alexis Galarneau wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.
- BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 1.7% · won 52% · −1.3±12.6 vs own baseline · +1.6 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Billy Harris (6/7)
Strengths and vulnerabilities
Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.
Hurts opponents most with
| FH to their backhand · rally | +1.3 | 160 |
Most exposed to
| BH to their backhand · rally | −1.8 | 120 |
| FH to their forehand · rally | −0.5 | 146 |
Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Richard Gasquet, Nishesh Basavareddy, Arthur Cazaux, Jaume Munar, Daniel Evans
Charted matches
- Alexis Galarneau v Naoki Nakagawa W Charlottesville CH R32 · Hard · 29 Oct 2024
- Alexis Galarneau v Bernard Tomic Fairfield CH QF · Hard · 11 Oct 2024
- Alexis Galarneau v Billy Harris W Rome GA CH R32 · Hard · 11 Jul 2022
- Alexis Galarneau v Botic Van De Zandschulp L Davis Cup Qualifiers RR · Clay · 4 Mar 2022