Newport · R32 · Grass · 12 Jul 2022
Andy Murray v Sam Querrey
54–25 in points · Andy Murray won
Why it went the way it did
Andy Murray won 14.0 more points than Sam Querrey relative to what the serve alone predicted. Sam Querrey's biggest leaks: forehand execution −3.8, backhand execution −3.2, serve 2nd execution −2.5.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Andy Murray | Sam Querrey | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.7 | −0.1 | +0.9 | +0.1 | −0.3 | −0.1 | −2.2 | −2.6 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.7 | −0.8 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −2.5 | −2.5 |
| Return | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.3 | +0.4 | −0.1 | +0.3 | −1.7 | −1.4 |
| Forehand | −0.3 | ±0.0 | +0.7 | +0.3 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | −3.8 | −3.6 |
| Backhand | −0.3 | +0.2 | +0.3 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −3.2 | −3.5 |
| Slice | −0.2 | −1.5 | −0.8 | −2.5 | ±0.0 | −1.0 | −0.6 | −1.6 |
| Net | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.2 | −0.5 | +0.3 | −0.3 | −0.5 |
| Touch | −0.1 | −0.7 | +0.4 | −0.4 | −0.2 | −0.1 | −0.5 | −0.8 |
| All shots | −1.5 | −2.1 | +1.1 | −2.4 | −1.0 | −0.6 | −14.9 | −16.4 |
Set by set
| Set | Andy Murray | Sam Querrey | Net, Andy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −0.5 | −5.2 | +4.7 | |
| 2 | −1.9 | −11.3 | +9.3 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Andy Murray serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 37% 60% | 33% 78% | 30% 38% |
| 2 | 21% 100% | 57% 88% | 21% 67% |
Within sets +0.45 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Sam Querrey serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 68% 31% | 11% 50% | 21% 25% |
| 2 | 16% 33% | 37% 43% | 47% 22% |
Within sets +2.23 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Andy Murray
3.1 points left on the table across 100 shots 3.05 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×1; BH down the line rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Return +1: volley to your middle, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×1; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts
- Return +1: volley to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×1; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
Sam Querrey
3.7 points left on the table across 115 shots 3.25 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: drive to your middle hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your middle, you at net hit Smash through the middle ×1; Smash crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts