Newport · QF · Grass · 15 Jul 2022
Maxime Cressy v Steve Johnson
103–95 in points · Maxime Cressy won
Why it went the way it did
Maxime Cressy won 3.7 more points than Steve Johnson relative to what the serve alone predicted. Steve Johnson's biggest leaks: return execution −5.2, slice shot selection −2.7, backhand execution −1.9.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Maxime Cressy | Steve Johnson | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | +0.7 | +3.6 | +4.3 | −0.1 | −0.2 | +0.2 | −0.1 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.2 | +0.7 | −2.2 | −1.3 | +0.1 | −0.1 | −0.2 | −0.2 |
| Return | +0.4 | +1.1 | −2.4 | −1.0 | −0.1 | +1.4 | −5.2 | −3.9 |
| Forehand | +0.1 | +0.3 | +0.5 | +0.9 | −0.6 | +2.2 | +1.9 | +3.6 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | +0.4 | −0.9 | −0.6 | +0.2 | +0.6 | −1.9 | −1.1 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −1.2 | −0.3 | −1.4 | +0.2 | −2.7 | +0.3 | −2.2 |
| Net | +0.8 | −0.2 | −1.2 | −0.7 | +0.1 | +0.3 | +0.1 | +0.5 |
| Touch | +0.1 | −0.3 | −0.1 | −0.3 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.1 | −0.5 |
| All shots | +1.6 | +1.3 | −3.1 | −0.1 | −0.2 | +1.2 | −4.8 | −3.8 |
Set by set
| Set | Maxime Cressy | Steve Johnson | Net, Maxime | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −1.1 | +0.3 | −1.4 | |
| 2 | −0.3 | −2.3 | +2.0 | |
| 3 | +1.3 | −1.7 | +3.0 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Maxime Cressy serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 67% 70% | 11% 60% | 22% 70% |
| 2 | 47% 71% | 10% 67% | 43% 77% |
| 3 | 60% 87% | – | 40% 80% |
Set to set +0.71 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.13 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Steve Johnson serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 47% 85% | 7% 33% | 47% 65% |
| 2 | 57% 76% | – | 43% 54% |
| 3 | 24% 67% | 32% 63% | 44% 82% |
Set to set −2.43 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −1.46 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Maxime Cressy
5.5 points left on the table across 193 shots 2.84 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×2; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.50 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle ×7; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.37 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
Steve Johnson
6.1 points left on the table across 182 shots 3.37 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your backhand side hit FH through the middle ×3; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.31 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court, server rushing the net hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.30 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court, server rushing the net hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts