Hamburg · R32 · Clay · 19 Jul 2022
Aslan Karatsev v Nikoloz Basilashvili
56–29 in points · Aslan Karatsev won
Why it went the way it did
Aslan Karatsev won 14.6 more points than Nikoloz Basilashvili relative to what the serve alone predicted. Nikoloz Basilashvili's biggest leaks: backhand execution −4.4, slice execution −1.4, slice shot selection −1.4.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Aslan Karatsev | Nikoloz Basilashvili | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +2.5 | +2.4 | +0.2 | −0.1 | +0.1 | +0.2 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.9 | +2.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +0.6 |
| Return | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +3.7 | +3.6 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 |
| Forehand | +0.1 | +0.2 | −0.4 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | +0.4 | −0.9 | −1.1 |
| Backhand | −0.2 | −0.7 | −0.3 | −1.2 | ±0.0 | −0.8 | −4.4 | −5.2 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −1.8 | +0.3 | −1.5 | −0.3 | −1.4 | −1.4 | −3.1 |
| Touch | +0.2 | −0.3 | +0.7 | +0.6 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | +0.2 | −2.7 | +8.4 | +5.8 | −0.9 | −2.0 | −5.9 | −8.7 |
Set by set
| Set | Aslan Karatsev | Nikoloz Basilashvili | Net, Aslan | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +0.9 | −3.0 | +3.9 | |
| 2 | +4.9 | −5.7 | +10.6 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Aslan Karatsev serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 56% 57% | 12% 100% | 32% 75% |
| 2 | 62% 88% | – | 38% 100% |
Within sets −0.83 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Nikoloz Basilashvili serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 73% 58% | – | 27% 44% |
| 2 | 86% 17% | – | 14% 0% |
Within sets +0.35 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Aslan Karatsev
3.4 points left on the table across 94 shots 3.65 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×3; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.49 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your middle hit FH slice through the middle ×3; FH slice down the line rates higher · 0.40 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×3; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH crosscourt ×1; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.20 pts
Nikoloz Basilashvili
3.8 points left on the table across 93 shots 4.09 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.62 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×2; BH slice down the line rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×3; BH down the line rates higher · 0.27 pts