RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 32 charted matches · 2017–2025

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Archetype: Rallies through the middle · Crosscourt backhand

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 62.2% ±2.8 raw 59.7% · tour 63.4% · 2,475 points
Return points won 37.0% ±2.8 raw 34.5% · tour 36.6% · 2,323 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice ±0.00 ±0.10 better than 58% of ATP · raw ±0.00
Shot selection +0.16 ±0.12 better than 70% of ATP · raw +0.16
Execution −1.45 ±0.48 better than 11% of ATP · raw −1.45
Tactical adaptability ±0.00 first serves toward what's working, set to set · 29 matches
Adaptation speed +0.01 same, every two to three service games · per 100 first serves
Points left on the table 2.22 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 90% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 11,029 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Nikoloz Basilashvili goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 662 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH down the line 30% 48.5%±5.6 51.5%
FH through the middle 21% 49.9%±6.5 47.0%
FH crosscourt 18% 52.9%±7.0 52.7%
BH crosscourt 13% 50.3%±8.0 49.1%
BH through the middle 13% 42.1%±8.0 46.8%
BH down the line 6% 55.5%±10.8 48.3%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 585 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 44% 45.9%±4.9 47.6%
BH through the middle 27% 40.5%±6.1 43.7%
BH down the line 15% 44.2%±7.9 46.4%
FH inside-out 5% 55.9%±11.7 51.8%
FH inside-in 2% 55.7%±14.0 54.7%
BH slice through the middle 2% 31.3%±13.5 35.1%
FH through the middle 2% 48.5%±14.8 45.2%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 426 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 45% 46.4%±5.6 46.6%
FH down the line 29% 42.0%±6.7 44.7%
FH through the middle 24% 38.3%±7.3 41.5%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 381 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 51% 44.7%±5.6 48.0%
BH through the middle 23% 46.6%±7.9 43.8%
BH down the line 13% 46.1%±9.8 46.5%
FH inside-out 4% 47.4%±13.5 52.6%
BH slice crosscourt 3% 46.5%±14.7 42.1%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index −4 How much less varied Nikoloz Basilashvili's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 246 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 54% 65% ▲ 71% / 73%
Body 6% 6% 65% / 63%
T 39% 29% ▼ 71% / 75%

1,227 normal · 62 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 66% 59% 67% / 73%
Body 6% 7% 61% / 63%
T 28% 35% 65% / 72%

990 normal · 184 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide55% 61.8%±2.9 n=707 68% ▲
Body6% 63.8%±7.4 n=83 0% ▼
T39% 59.2%±3.5 n=499 32% ▼

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.46).
Optimal mix: +0.2 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide65% 58.6%±2.9 n=762 58% ▼
Body6% 58.4%±8.1 n=71 0% ▼
T29% 57.6%±4.2 n=341 42% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.94).
Optimal mix: +0.1 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.17 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: −3.6±3.0 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (1,115 repeats, 1,286 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 64 37% +0.3±8.2
1stAd courtT 270 28% −0.2±4.3
1stAd courtWide 318 25% −1.9±3.8
1stDeuce courtBody 68 37% ±0.0±8.0
1stDeuce courtT 338 20% −5.4±3.4
1stDeuce courtWide 335 23% −4.1±3.6
2ndAd courtBody 134 47% −2.5±6.4
2ndAd courtT 76 55% +5.2±8.0
2ndAd courtWide 239 47% −1.7±5.0
2ndDeuce courtBody 177 48% −1.3±5.7
2ndDeuce courtT 196 50% +0.7±5.5
2ndDeuce courtWide 107 52% +4.1±7.0

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Nikoloz Basilashvili's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 4.2% · won 63% · −0.7±7.2 vs own baseline
  2. Wide serve (ad court) → FH down the line used 2.5% · won 61% · −3.0±8.7 vs own baseline
  3. Wide serve (deuce court) → BH crosscourt used 2.8% · won 59% · −5.3±8.5 vs own baseline
  4. Wide serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 3.7% · won 58% · −5.9±7.7 vs own baseline
  5. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 2.4% · won 56% · −8.1±9.0 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs T serve (ad court) → FH through the middle, deep used 2.2% · won 52% · +12.8±10.3 vs own baseline
  2. vs T serve (ad court) → FH through the middle, mid used 2.5% · won 51% · +12.0±9.9 vs own baseline
  3. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 3.9% · won 48% · +8.9±8.6 vs own baseline
  4. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, mid used 4.9% · won 47% · +7.7±7.9 vs own baseline
  5. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, deep used 2.6% · won 50% · +10.5±9.8 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 4.5% · won 54% · +6.1±7.0 vs own baseline
  2. FH through the middle → BH crosscourt used 3.7% · won 53% · +5.4±7.6 vs own baseline
  3. FH down the line → BH through the middle used 1.4% · won 56% · +8.4±10.4 vs own baseline
  4. BH through the middle → FH down the line used 2.7% · won 53% · +5.2±8.5 vs own baseline
  5. FH through the middle → FH through the middle used 2.1% · won 53% · +5.1±9.3 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Nikoloz Basilashvili wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. FH down the line → BH slice through the middle → FH crosscourt used 0.3% · won 64% · +15.1±11.9 vs own baseline · +21.3 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Marton Fucsovics (5/6)
  2. FH crosscourt → FH slice through the middle → FH crosscourt used 0.3% · won 63% · +14.1±12.6 vs own baseline · +21.1 vs tour on the same sequence
  3. BH crosscourt → BH slice through the middle → FH down the line used 0.5% · won 59% · +9.5±10.9 vs own baseline · +11.3 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Aljaz Bedene (3/6), Marton Fucsovics (6/10)
  4. Wide serve → BH through the middle return, mid → FH crosscourt used 0.5% · won 59% · +9.9±11.1 vs own baseline · +9.1 vs tour on the same sequence
  5. FH through the middle → FH through the middle → FH through the middle used 0.5% · won 57% · +8.0±11.2 vs own baseline · +17.6 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Marton Fucsovics (7/10)
  6. FH down the line → BH slice crosscourt → FH inside-in used 0.4% · won 58% · +9.3±12.1 vs own baseline · +10.3 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

BH to the middle · return+1.3521
Body 2nd serve · deuce court+0.5192
FH to the middle · return+0.4363
Body 2nd serve · ad court+0.4184
BH to their forehand · rally+0.2321

Most exposed to

BH to the middle · return−2.1551
Wide 1st serve · ad court−1.9502
Wide 1st serve · deuce court−1.9495
T 1st serve · ad court−1.7444
BH to their backhand · return−1.4362

Best-equipped opponents

Active players whose shot mix lines up best against these weaknesses, by structural compatibility per 100 rally shots: Rafael Nadal +1.20, Miomir Kecmanovic +1.15, Casper Ruud +0.98, Pedro Martinez +0.97, Nishesh Basavareddy +0.94

Favourable matchups

Miomir Kecmanovic −0.17, Fabian Marozsan −0.24, Pedro Martinez −0.25, Alexander Shevchenko −0.31, Roberto Carballes Baena −0.35

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Juan Carlos Prado Angelo, Cameron Norrie, Daniil Medvedev, Dusan Lajovic, Ugo Humbert

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the ATP average, in standard deviations.

Wide serves · ad65%
Unforced errors / shot14.5%
Wide serves · deuce55%
Point-ending shots27.8%
Forehand share57%
Deep returns31%
Run-around forehands21%
FH down the line31%
Through the middle26%
Avg rally length3.8
Serve & volley1%
BH down the line17%
Drop shots / shot0.5%
T serves · deuce39%
Backhand slice6%
Chipped returns4%
Points at net5%
1st serve in56%
T serves · ad29%

Plays most like

  1. Aslan Karatsev 2020–2023 plan v
  2. Marin Cilic 2009–2026 plan v
  3. Paul Henri Mathieu 2002–2016 plan v
  4. Arthur Fils 2023–2026 plan v
  5. Thomaz Bellucci 2011–2023 plan v
  6. Roman Safiullin 2017–2025 plan v
  7. Lloyd Harris 2019–2024 plan v
  8. Jan Lennard Struff 2014–2025 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Marcelo Rios 1995–2001
  2. Magnus Norman 2000–2001
  3. Gustavo Kuerten 1997–2007

Charted matches