San Benedetto del Tronto CH · F · Clay · 31 Jul 2022
Andrea Vavassori v Raul Brancaccio
41–68 in points · Raul Brancaccio won
Why it went the way it did
Raul Brancaccio won 14.1 more points than Andrea Vavassori relative to what the serve alone predicted. Andrea Vavassori's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −6.3, forehand execution −2.4, serve 2nd execution −2.1.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Andrea Vavassori | Raul Brancaccio | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | ±0.0 | +1.0 | −1.6 | −0.7 | −0.2 | −0.1 | +0.6 | +0.3 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | +0.2 | −2.1 | −1.9 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| Return | −0.1 | −0.8 | +2.7 | +1.8 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +2.1 | +2.4 |
| Forehand | +0.5 | +2.6 | −2.4 | +0.8 | +0.6 | +2.1 | −1.0 | +1.7 |
| Backhand | +0.1 | +0.2 | −0.7 | −0.4 | +0.3 | +0.3 | +1.8 | +2.4 |
| Slice | +0.2 | −6.3 | −0.2 | −6.2 | ±0.0 | −1.2 | +1.1 | −0.1 |
| Net | −0.2 | +0.3 | −0.6 | −0.6 | +0.2 | +0.3 | +0.9 | +1.4 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.2 | +0.1 | −0.1 | +0.1 | −0.6 | −0.4 | −1.0 |
| Other | ±0.0 | −0.2 | +0.3 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.2 |
| All shots | +0.5 | −3.2 | −4.5 | −7.2 | +1.2 | +0.8 | +4.9 | +6.9 |
Set by set
| Set | Andrea Vavassori | Raul Brancaccio | Net, Andrea | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −4.6 | +3.4 | −8.0 | |
| 2 | −2.7 | +3.5 | −6.1 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Andrea Vavassori serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 47% 47% | 17% 17% | 36% 38% |
| 2 | 52% 36% | 14% 33% | 33% 29% |
Set to set −0.01 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.60 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Raul Brancaccio serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 54% 60% | 11% 0% | 36% 80% |
| 2 | 46% 64% | 33% 75% | 21% 40% |
Within sets −0.29 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Andrea Vavassori
6.3 points left on the table across 219 shots 2.87 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH down the line ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.37 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH slice through the middle ×5; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.32 pts
- Serve +1: lob to your middle, you at net hit Smash through the middle ×1; Smash crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH slice through the middle ×4; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
Raul Brancaccio
4.6 points left on the table across 217 shots 2.12 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH crosscourt ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.39 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.33 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH slice through the middle ×3; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, body, deuce court, server rushing the net hit BH through the middle ×1; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.15 pts