Cincinnati Masters · R64 · Hard · 17 Aug 2022
Filip Krajinovic v Daniel Evans
65–51 in points · Filip Krajinovic won
Why it went the way it did
Filip Krajinovic won 7.9 more points than Daniel Evans relative to what the serve alone predicted. Daniel Evans's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −5.0, forehand execution −3.0, serve 2nd execution −2.9.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Filip Krajinovic | Daniel Evans | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.2 | +0.1 | −0.2 | +0.1 | +0.2 | +0.5 | +2.2 | +3.0 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | +0.1 | −0.6 | −0.5 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −2.9 | −3.0 |
| Return | −0.1 | −0.5 | +2.5 | +2.0 | −0.4 | −2.3 | +0.9 | −1.8 |
| Forehand | −0.8 | +0.5 | −1.4 | −1.7 | −2.1 | +1.4 | −3.0 | −3.7 |
| Backhand | −0.7 | −1.3 | −0.1 | −2.2 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +0.2 |
| Slice | −0.2 | −1.5 | −0.8 | −2.5 | −1.2 | −5.0 | −0.4 | −6.5 |
| Net | +0.3 | +0.2 | +0.8 | +1.3 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | +0.3 | ±0.0 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.5 | +0.1 | −0.4 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | −1.2 | −2.9 | +0.2 | −3.9 | −3.6 | −5.7 | −2.5 | −11.8 |
Set by set
| Set | Filip Krajinovic | Daniel Evans | Net, Filip | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −4.0 | −7.3 | +3.4 | |
| 2 | ±0.0 | −4.5 | +4.5 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Filip Krajinovic serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 29% 88% | – | 71% 55% |
| 2 | 44% 83% | 4% 0% | 52% 79% |
Within sets +2.42 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Daniel Evans serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 56% 53% | 4% 0% | 41% 55% |
| 2 | 35% 75% | – | 65% 55% |
Within sets +0.24 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Filip Krajinovic
6.0 points left on the table across 190 shots 3.15 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: slice to your middle hit BH through the middle ×3; BH down the line rates higher · 0.70 pts
- Serve +1: slice to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.43 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.34 pts
- Serve +1: slice to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×2; BH down the line rates higher · 0.27 pts
Daniel Evans
9.1 points left on the table across 185 shots 4.93 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.87 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×11; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.63 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your middle hit FH slice through the middle ×4; FH slice down the line rates higher · 0.53 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×7; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.49 pts