Seoul · R32 · Hard · 26 Sep 2022
Aleksandar Kovacevic v Miomir Kecmanovic
69–66 in points · result not charted to completion
Why it went the way it did
Miomir Kecmanovic won 1.5 more points than Aleksandar Kovacevic relative to what the serve alone predicted. Aleksandar Kovacevic's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −2.2, backhand execution −1.8, return shot selection −1.2.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Aleksandar Kovacevic | Miomir Kecmanovic | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | −0.1 | +0.8 | +0.8 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.5 | −0.6 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +0.6 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +1.0 | +0.9 |
| Return | ±0.0 | −1.2 | +0.2 | −1.1 | +0.2 | −0.5 | −0.4 | −0.8 |
| Forehand | −0.5 | +3.1 | ±0.0 | +2.6 | −0.2 | +1.4 | ±0.0 | +1.1 |
| Backhand | +0.2 | +0.1 | −1.8 | −1.5 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +3.0 | +3.3 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −2.2 | +1.1 | −1.1 | +0.1 | −1.6 | −0.2 | −1.6 |
| Net | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.2 | +0.3 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.3 | +0.7 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | +0.4 |
| All shots | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.4 | +1.4 | +0.1 | −0.6 | +3.3 | +2.8 |
Set by set
| Set | Aleksandar Kovacevic | Miomir Kecmanovic | Net, Aleksandar | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +2.6 | +3.5 | −0.9 | |
| 2 | −1.2 | −0.7 | −0.5 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Aleksandar Kovacevic serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38% 75% | 6% 50% | 56% 67% |
| 2 | 48% 47% | 5% 50% | 48% 63% |
Set to set −0.28 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.99 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Miomir Kecmanovic serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 35% 78% | 15% 75% | 50% 69% |
| 2 | 35% 50% | 3% 0% | 62% 62% |
Within sets +1.32 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Aleksandar Kovacevic
6.1 points left on the table across 256 shots 2.39 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.38 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×5; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.34 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
Miomir Kecmanovic
4.7 points left on the table across 244 shots 1.92 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.36 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.18 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts