RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 12 charted matches · 2021–2026

Aleksandar Kovacevic

Archetype: High-risk · Runs around the backhand

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 65.7% ±3.3 raw 65.0% · tour 63.4% · 960 points
Return points won 35.6% ±3.5 raw 32.5% · tour 36.6% · 880 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice −0.12 ±0.10 better than 26% of ATP · raw −0.12
Shot selection −0.31 ±0.25 better than 22% of ATP · raw −0.31
Execution −0.76 ±0.71 better than 34% of ATP · raw −0.71
Tactical adaptability −0.14 first serves toward what's working, set to set · 11 matches
Adaptation speed −0.03 same, every two to three service games · per 100 first serves
Points left on the table 2.66 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 43% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 4,164 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Aleksandar Kovacevic goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 275 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 32% 42.0%±7.9 47.6%
BH through the middle 21% 36.9%±9.0 43.7%
BH slice crosscourt 12% 43.3%±11.3 42.5%
FH inside-out 10% 40.3%±11.6 51.8%
BH slice through the middle 9% 31.2%±11.4 35.1%
BH down the line 6% 41.3%±13.3 46.4%
FH inside-in 4% 56.4%±14.9 54.7%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 203 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH down the line 29% 47.2%±9.2 51.5%
FH through the middle 27% 39.2%±9.3 47.0%
FH crosscourt 23% 53.9%±10.1 52.7%
BH crosscourt 8% 38.4%±13.3 49.1%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 152 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 28% 46.1%±10.4 48.0%
BH slice crosscourt 20% 42.9%±11.5 42.1%
BH through the middle 15% 36.7%±12.1 43.8%
BH slice through the middle 13% 37.6%±12.6 35.1%
FH inside-out 9% 56.1%±14.2 52.6%
BH down the line 7% 44.3%±14.9 46.5%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 148 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 46% 40.1%±8.6 46.6%
FH through the middle 34% 32.8%±9.2 41.5%
FH down the line 13% 35.8%±12.6 44.7%
FH slice through the middle 7% 33.0%±14.1 24.5%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +7 How much less varied Aleksandar Kovacevic's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 73 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 44% 33% ▼ 74% / 73%
Body 6% 0% 67% / 63%
T 51% 67% ▲ 79% / 75%

488 normal · 15 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 45% 38% 77% / 73%
Body 5% 5% 66% / 63%
T 50% 57% 75% / 72%

398 normal · 58 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide43% 65.3%±5.0 n=218 36% ▼
Body5% 62.7%±10.5 n=27 0% ▼
T51% 68.5%±4.5 n=258 64% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.45).
Optimal mix: +0.5 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide44% 63.3%±5.2 n=202 57% ▲
Body5% 65.3%±10.8 n=23 0% ▼
T51% 62.6%±4.9 n=231 43% ▼

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.85).
Optimal mix: +0.2 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.36 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: −7.5±5.4 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (424 repeats, 511 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 37 36% −1.0±9.6
1stAd courtT 123 26% −2.3±5.8
1stAd courtWide 103 27% ±0.0±6.3
1stDeuce courtBody 41 37% −0.1±9.4
1stDeuce courtT 128 20% −5.1±5.2
1stDeuce courtWide 121 23% −4.6±5.6
2ndAd courtBody 49 44% −5.3±9.2
2ndAd courtT 29 49% −0.5±10.7
2ndAd courtWide 73 47% −1.3±8.1
2ndDeuce courtBody 69 49% +0.2±8.3
2ndDeuce courtT 81 44% −5.6±7.8
2ndDeuce courtWide 22 49% +0.8±11.4

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Aleksandar Kovacevic's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. T serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 3.8% · won 66% · −6.9±10.4 vs own baseline
  2. T serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 3.5% · won 64% · −8.2±10.7 vs own baseline
  3. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle used 2.9% · won 62% · −11.0±11.3 vs own baseline
  4. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 2.9% · won 60% · −13.0±11.4 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs body serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle, mid used 9.0% · won 42% · +6.1±11.3 vs own baseline
  2. vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle, mid used 8.2% · won 39% · +3.8±11.5 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 5.1% · won 55% · +13.4±10.6 vs own baseline
  2. FH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 4.0% · won 44% · +2.7±11.3 vs own baseline
  3. FH crosscourt → FH through the middle used 4.2% · won 44% · +1.8±11.1 vs own baseline
  4. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 4.0% · won 41% · −1.1±11.2 vs own baseline
  5. BH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 4.2% · won 40% · −1.9±11.0 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Aleksandar Kovacevic wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 1.3% · won 50% · +7.5±11.5 vs own baseline · +8.9 vs tour on the same sequence
  2. FH down the line → BH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 0.7% · won 49% · +6.4±13.0 vs own baseline · +5.4 vs tour on the same sequence
  3. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH through the middle used 1.0% · won 47% · +4.3±12.1 vs own baseline · +7.8 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Novak Djokovic (5/10)
  4. FH down the line → BH through the middle → FH down the line used 0.7% · won 44% · +1.4±13.0 vs own baseline · −6.0 vs tour on the same sequence
  5. FH down the line → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 1.0% · won 43% · ±0.0±12.0 vs own baseline · −6.1 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Novak Djokovic (2/8)
  6. FH crosscourt → FH down the line → BH slice crosscourt used 0.8% · won 41% · −2.1±12.7 vs own baseline · −4.5 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

Wide 1st serve · deuce court+0.9204
T 1st serve · ad court+0.3218
FH to their backhand · serve +1+0.2144
Wide 1st serve · ad court+0.1193
FH to the middle · rally−0.4199

Most exposed to

FH to their backhand · rally−1.6235
FH to their forehand · rally−1.3224
BH to the middle · rally−1.1156
BH to their backhand · rally−0.8224
T 1st serve · ad court−0.3190

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Adrian Andreev, Alex Molcan, Rafael Nadal, Hugo Gaston, Daniel Evans

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the ATP average, in standard deviations.

T serves · ad51%
Through the middle30%
Run-around forehands31%
Forehand share60%
Deep returns36%
Chipped returns25%
T serves · deuce51%
Unforced errors / shot11.8%
Backhand slice29%
Point-ending shots25.0%
Drop shots / shot1.7%
Wide serves · deuce43%
Serve & volley1%
Avg rally length3.7
1st serve in59%
Wide serves · ad44%
FH down the line26%
Points at net5%
BH down the line13%

Plays most like

  1. Zhizhen Zhang 2019–2026 plan v
  2. Zizou Bergs 2021–2026 plan v
  3. Botic Van De Zandschulp 2019–2026 plan v
  4. Stefanos Tsitsipas 2016–2026 plan v
  5. Vasek Pospisil 2013–2023 plan v
  6. Ethan Quinn 2024–2026 plan v
  7. Lucas Pouille 2015–2024 plan v
  8. Felix Auger Aliassime 2017–2026 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. James Blake 2002–2011
  2. Sebastien Grosjean 1999–2005
  3. Guillermo Canas 2001–2007

Charted matches