Guadalajara · R16 · Hard · 20 Oct 2022
Coco Gauff v Martina Trevisan
62–38 in points · Coco Gauff won
Why it went the way it did
Coco Gauff won 10.5 more points than Martina Trevisan relative to what the serve alone predicted. Martina Trevisan's biggest leaks: forehand execution −5.9, slice shot selection −1.7, backhand execution −1.5.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Coco Gauff | Martina Trevisan | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.2 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.5 | −0.3 | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −0.7 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.6 | −1.6 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.2 | −1.2 |
| Return | −0.2 | +0.5 | −1.8 | −1.5 | ±0.0 | −1.0 | −1.4 | −2.4 |
| Forehand | −0.1 | +0.7 | +3.4 | +4.0 | +0.3 | +1.1 | −5.9 | −4.5 |
| Backhand | −0.1 | +0.1 | −2.2 | −2.2 | −0.2 | +0.2 | −1.5 | −1.5 |
| Slice | −0.3 | −0.9 | −0.2 | −1.3 | −0.1 | −1.7 | −1.4 | −3.2 |
| Net | −0.4 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.8 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| Touch | +0.1 | +0.1 | −0.4 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | −0.7 | +0.5 | −2.9 | −3.1 | −0.4 | −1.4 | −11.7 | −13.6 |
Set by set
| Set | Coco Gauff | Martina Trevisan | Net, Coco | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −0.7 | −8.6 | +7.8 | |
| 2 | −2.3 | −5.0 | +2.7 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Coco Gauff serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 58% 50% | 4% 100% | 38% 89% |
| 2 | 36% 54% | 17% 67% | 47% 65% |
Within sets +1.10 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Martina Trevisan serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 33% 20% | 27% 0% | 40% 33% |
| 2 | 36% 56% | 44% 45% | 20% 60% |
Within sets +0.31 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Coco Gauff
4.4 points left on the table across 146 shots 3.04 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.34 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your middle, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit BH down the line ×4; BH through the middle rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
Martina Trevisan
4.8 points left on the table across 166 shots 2.89 per 100 shots
- Return +1: slice to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×1; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit BH through the middle ×2; BH inside-in rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit FH down the line ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.23 pts