Bergamo CH · F · Hard · 6 Nov 2022
Jan Lennard Struff v Otto Virtanen
51–73 in points · Otto Virtanen won
Why it went the way it did
Otto Virtanen won 13.7 more points than Jan Lennard Struff relative to what the serve alone predicted. Jan Lennard Struff's biggest leaks: serve 2nd execution −2.2, serve 1st execution −1.9, net execution −1.7.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Jan Lennard Struff | Otto Virtanen | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.1 | +0.5 | −1.9 | −1.5 | +0.3 | −0.1 | +4.5 | +4.7 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | +0.1 | −2.2 | −2.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.9 | −1.0 |
| Return | +0.1 | +0.3 | −0.6 | −0.1 | −0.1 | +0.9 | −1.4 | −0.6 |
| Forehand | +0.2 | +1.2 | −0.4 | +1.0 | +0.4 | +1.6 | +1.3 | +3.3 |
| Backhand | +0.1 | +0.5 | −0.5 | +0.2 | +0.1 | +0.7 | −0.4 | +0.4 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −1.2 | −1.2 | −2.3 | ±0.0 | −0.4 | +0.2 | −0.3 |
| Net | −0.5 | +0.5 | −1.7 | −1.7 | −0.3 | −0.1 | +0.2 | −0.2 |
| Touch | −0.2 | −0.1 | +0.2 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.5 | +0.6 |
| All shots | −0.3 | +1.9 | −8.3 | −6.7 | +0.4 | +2.7 | +3.9 | +7.1 |
Set by set
| Set | Jan Lennard Struff | Otto Virtanen | Net, Jan | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −2.9 | +3.4 | −6.3 | |
| 2 | −3.7 | +3.7 | −7.4 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Jan Lennard Struff serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 61% 43% | 13% 67% | 26% 67% |
| 2 | 37% 53% | 13% 50% | 50% 52% |
Within sets +1.78 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Otto Virtanen serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38% 100% | – | 62% 69% |
| 2 | 27% 67% | – | 73% 71% |
Within sets +0.14 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Jan Lennard Struff
5.1 points left on the table across 155 shots 3.29 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×2; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.56 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your middle hit BH through the middle ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
Otto Virtanen
4.5 points left on the table across 170 shots 2.67 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court, server rushing the net hit BH through the middle ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts