RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 47 charted matches · 2014–2025

Jan Lennard Struff

Archetype: Rallies through the middle · Crosscourt backhand

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 66.8% ±2.4 raw 64.8% · tour 63.4% · 3,473 points
Return points won 37.7% ±2.5 raw 33.0% · tour 36.6% · 3,468 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice −0.02 ±0.10 better than 52% of ATP · raw −0.02
Shot selection +0.40 ±0.15 better than 86% of ATP · raw +0.40
Execution −0.74 ±0.60 better than 35% of ATP · raw −0.73
Tactical adaptability +0.01 first serves toward what's working, set to set · 43 matches
Adaptation speed +0.23 same, every two to three service games · per 100 first serves
Points left on the table 2.93 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 24% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 14,014 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Jan Lennard Struff goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 667 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 44% 49.5%±4.7 47.6%
BH through the middle 23% 39.3%±6.2 43.7%
BH slice crosscourt 8% 45.4%±9.4 42.5%
BH down the line 8% 46.2%±9.7 46.4%
FH inside-out 7% 52.9%±10.2 51.8%
BH slice through the middle 6% 34.5%±10.0 35.1%
FH inside-in 3% 48.5%±13.2 54.7%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 518 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 24% 54.5%±6.8 52.7%
FH down the line 17% 64.8%±7.5 51.5%
FH through the middle 16% 46.5%±8.0 47.0%
BH crosscourt 16% 47.9%±8.1 49.1%
BH through the middle 14% 39.5%±8.4 46.8%
BH down the line 4% 46.6%±13.0 48.3%
FH down the line + approach 3% 66.0%±13.2 70.5%
BH slice crosscourt 2% 43.2%±14.6 47.0%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 420 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 46% 43.5%±5.6 46.6%
FH through the middle 23% 35.0%±7.2 41.5%
FH down the line 18% 46.3%±8.3 44.7%
FH slice through the middle 9% 34.9%±10.4 24.5%
FH slice down the line 3% 23.0%±12.4 25.6%

Return +1: drive to your backhand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 385 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 43% 45.9%±6.0 46.9%
BH through the middle 27% 42.9%±7.3 43.0%
BH down the line 8% 45.8%±11.4 44.2%
BH slice crosscourt 8% 43.5%±11.4 40.9%
BH slice through the middle 6% 31.4%±11.6 32.6%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index −2 How much less varied Jan Lennard Struff's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 274 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 47% 51% 78% / 73%
Body 7% 8% 59% / 63%
T 46% 41% 78% / 75%

1,761 normal · 59 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 54% 53% 77% / 73%
Body 7% 7% 60% / 63%
T 40% 40% 75% / 72%

1,433 normal · 215 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide47% 65.0%±2.6 n=863 42% ▼
Body7% 59.2%±6.6 n=120 0% ▼
T46% 65.3%±2.7 n=837 58% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.24).
Optimal mix: +0.5 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide54% 65.6%±2.6 n=884 67% ▲
Body7% 60.0%±6.8 n=111 0% ▼
T40% 64.7%±3.0 n=653 33% ▼

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.31).
Optimal mix: +0.5 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.49 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: +1.3±2.6 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (1,560 repeats, 1,814 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 113 38% +0.8±6.7
1stAd courtT 435 25% −3.4±3.3
1stAd courtWide 491 23% −4.0±3.0
1stDeuce courtBody 131 35% −1.3±6.2
1stDeuce courtT 536 21% −4.5±2.8
1stDeuce courtWide 497 23% −4.6±3.0
2ndAd courtBody 186 50% +1.0±5.6
2ndAd courtT 127 46% −3.6±6.5
2ndAd courtWide 299 50% +1.3±4.5
2ndDeuce courtBody 223 44% −4.9±5.1
2ndDeuce courtT 304 52% +2.7±4.5
2ndDeuce courtWide 123 47% −0.7±6.6

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Jan Lennard Struff's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. T serve (deuce court) → BH crosscourt used 2.1% · won 56% · −14.3±8.5 vs own baseline
  2. Body serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 2.1% · won 52% · −18.7±8.5 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, mid used 2.2% · won 48% · +9.2±9.3 vs own baseline
  2. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, short used 2.4% · won 48% · +8.7±9.0 vs own baseline
  3. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle used 8.2% · won 42% · +2.5±5.4 vs own baseline
  4. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 3.0% · won 41% · +2.2±8.2 vs own baseline
  5. vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle, mid used 2.0% · won 40% · +0.5±9.3 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. FH down the line → FH crosscourt used 1.4% · won 59% · +11.8±10.8 vs own baseline
  2. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 3.5% · won 54% · +6.8±8.3 vs own baseline
  3. BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 3.1% · won 52% · +4.4±8.7 vs own baseline
  4. BH crosscourt → FH down the line used 3.3% · won 51% · +3.8±8.5 vs own baseline
  5. FH down the line → BH crosscourt used 2.3% · won 52% · +4.2±9.7 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Jan Lennard Struff wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. BH crosscourt → BH through the middle → FH down the line used 0.7% · won 61% · +11.1±10.0 vs own baseline · +16.1 vs tour on the same sequence
  2. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 1.1% · won 57% · +7.8±8.6 vs own baseline · +11.5 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Hubert Hurkacz (7/9), Tallon Griekspoor (6/7)
  3. Wide serve → FH through the middle return → BH volley crosscourt used 0.4% · won 59% · +9.6±11.7 vs own baseline · −1.7 vs tour on the same sequence
  4. FH crosscourt → FH through the middle → FH down the line used 0.3% · won 59% · +9.5±12.3 vs own baseline · +19.2 vs tour on the same sequence
  5. BH crosscourt → BH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 0.5% · won 56% · +6.6±10.9 vs own baseline · +8.2 vs tour on the same sequence
  6. BH crosscourt → BH through the middle → BH crosscourt used 0.3% · won 58% · +9.0±12.8 vs own baseline · +24.1 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

FH to their forehand · return +1+3.0207
T 1st serve · ad court+2.3618
BH to their forehand · return+1.4153
T 1st serve · deuce court+1.3805
Wide 1st serve · ad court+1.2858

Most exposed to

T 1st serve · deuce court−3.3853
Wide 1st serve · deuce court−3.0724
T 1st serve · ad court−3.0643
Wide 1st serve · ad court−2.2795
BH to their backhand · return +1−2.2193

Best-equipped opponents

Active players whose shot mix lines up best against these weaknesses, by structural compatibility per 100 rally shots: Rafael Nadal +1.48, Miomir Kecmanovic +1.00, Jack Draper +0.90, Nishesh Basavareddy +0.89, Casper Ruud +0.84

Favourable matchups

Fabian Marozsan +0.52, Pedro Martinez +0.36, Roberto Carballes Baena +0.34, Miomir Kecmanovic +0.30, Alexander Shevchenko +0.20

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Nick Kyrgios, Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, Milos Raonic, Reilly Opelka, Hamad Medjedovic

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the ATP average, in standard deviations.

Point-ending shots30.1%
Unforced errors / shot12.3%
Through the middle28%
Deep returns32%
Serve & volley20%
Wide serves · deuce47%
Wide serves · ad54%
Points at net14%
T serves · deuce46%
T serves · ad40%
Run-around forehands20%
Forehand share52%
Backhand slice18%
FH down the line29%
BH down the line15%
Chipped returns6%
1st serve in57%
Drop shots / shot0.2%
Avg rally length3.2

Plays most like

  1. James Duckworth 2014–2026 plan v
  2. Aslan Karatsev 2020–2023 plan v
  3. Mardy Fish 2003–2012 plan v
  4. Pierre Hugues Herbert 2014–2025 plan v
  5. Rinky Hijikata 2023–2026 plan v
  6. Marin Cilic 2009–2026 plan v
  7. Jiri Lehecka 2019–2026 plan v
  8. Sam Querrey 2010–2022 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Nicolas Kiefer 1999–2008
  2. Marat Safin 1998–2009
  3. Yevgeny Kafelnikov 1994–2002

Charted matches