Davis Cup Finals · QF · Hard · 23 Nov 2022
Marin Cilic v Pablo Carreno Busta
118–113 in points · Marin Cilic won
Why it went the way it did
Pablo Carreno Busta won 0.3 more points than Marin Cilic relative to what the serve alone predicted. Marin Cilic's biggest leaks: serve 2nd execution −4.6, slice shot selection −1.7, serve 1st execution −1.1.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Marin Cilic | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.3 | −0.1 | −1.1 | −1.0 | −0.7 | ±0.0 | −1.6 | −2.3 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | −0.1 | −4.6 | −4.9 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.3 |
| Return | +0.4 | +0.9 | −0.5 | +0.8 | +0.3 | −1.5 | −0.5 | −1.7 |
| Forehand | +0.2 | +2.8 | −0.1 | +3.0 | −0.5 | +1.9 | +0.3 | +1.8 |
| Backhand | +0.1 | +0.3 | +2.1 | +2.5 | −0.3 | +0.5 | +5.7 | +5.9 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −1.7 | −0.7 | −2.3 | −0.3 | −3.6 | −0.3 | −4.3 |
| Net | +0.3 | +0.7 | −0.6 | +0.4 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.7 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.1 | −0.1 | +0.5 | +0.4 |
| All shots | +1.1 | +2.9 | −5.5 | −1.4 | −1.5 | −2.8 | +3.2 | −1.1 |
Set by set
| Set | Marin Cilic | Pablo Carreno Busta | Net, Marin | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −4.3 | +3.0 | −7.4 | |
| 2 | −1.8 | −6.5 | +4.6 | |
| 3 | +4.8 | +2.3 | +2.4 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Marin Cilic serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 58% 47% | 4% 0% | 38% 65% |
| 2 | 50% 77% | 15% 100% | 35% 67% |
| 3 | 55% 69% | 2% 100% | 43% 50% |
Set to set +0.12 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.08 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Pablo Carreno Busta serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 47% 65% | 17% 83% | 36% 62% |
| 2 | 41% 55% | 22% 33% | 37% 80% |
| 3 | 37% 63% | 26% 45% | 37% 56% |
Set to set −0.06 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.02 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Marin Cilic
7.4 points left on the table across 429 shots 1.73 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×11; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.56 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×9; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.53 pts
- Long rally, 9+: slice to your backhand side hit BH through the middle + approach ×1; BH crosscourt + approach rates higher · 0.39 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your middle, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH down the line rates higher · 0.25 pts
Pablo Carreno Busta
9.6 points left on the table across 410 shots 2.35 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×13; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.66 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×14; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.54 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.32 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH slice through the middle ×4; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.30 pts