Valencia CH · F · Clay · 27 Nov 2022
Oleksii Krutykh v Luca Van Assche
54–26 in points · Oleksii Krutykh won
Why it went the way it did
Oleksii Krutykh won 13.3 more points than Luca Van Assche relative to what the serve alone predicted. Luca Van Assche's biggest leaks: return execution −2.0, slice shot selection −1.7, serve 1st execution −1.7.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Oleksii Krutykh | Luca Van Assche | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | −0.1 | −1.1 | −1.1 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −1.7 | −1.8 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.4 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.2 | +1.1 |
| Return | −0.3 | −0.2 | +3.2 | +2.7 | −0.2 | −0.3 | −2.0 | −2.4 |
| Forehand | +0.2 | +1.8 | +2.8 | +4.8 | −0.1 | +1.4 | −0.8 | +0.5 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | −0.6 | +5.1 | +4.5 | +0.2 | −0.5 | −0.3 | −0.6 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −2.1 | −0.5 | −2.4 | +0.1 | −1.7 | −0.3 | −1.9 |
| Net | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.5 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.1 | −0.3 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.6 |
| All shots | ±0.0 | −1.3 | +9.3 | +8.0 | ±0.0 | −1.1 | −4.2 | −5.3 |
Set by set
| Set | Oleksii Krutykh | Luca Van Assche | Net, Oleksii | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +5.3 | −1.1 | +6.4 | |
| 2 | +2.7 | −4.2 | +6.9 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Oleksii Krutykh serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 52% 67% | 4% 0% | 43% 70% |
| 2 | 40% 75% | 10% 50% | 50% 60% |
Within sets −1.07 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Luca Van Assche serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 45% 30% | 14% 33% | 41% 44% |
| 2 | 47% 14% | 20% 33% | 33% 20% |
Within sets +0.10 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Oleksii Krutykh
4.1 points left on the table across 201 shots 2.04 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit FH down the line ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH down the line ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.16 pts
Luca Van Assche
4.4 points left on the table across 204 shots 2.14 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×10; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.51 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH slice down the line ×2; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.33 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.33 pts
- Return +1: drop shot to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×1; BH down the line rates higher · 0.17 pts