RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 7 charted matches · 2022–2025

Luca Van Assche

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 65.9% ±3.6 raw 67.3% · tour 63.4% · 554 points
Return points won 39.6% ±3.7 raw 40.3% · tour 36.6% · 626 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice +0.04 ±0.10 better than 70% of ATP · raw +0.05
Shot selection +0.08 ±0.16 better than 62% of ATP · raw +0.09
Execution +0.79 ±0.43 better than 91% of ATP · raw +0.98
Points left on the table 2.13 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 97% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 3,353 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Luca Van Assche goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 186 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 52% 58.6%±7.5 47.6%
BH through the middle 19% 41.4%±10.9 43.7%
BH down the line 15% 47.4%±12.0 46.4%
BH slice crosscourt 6% 43.5%±14.6 42.5%
FH inside-out 5% 51.2%±15.0 51.8%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 163 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 39% 48.6%±9.0 46.6%
FH through the middle 29% 43.1%±9.9 41.5%
FH down the line 26% 53.9%±10.3 44.7%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 148 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH down the line 25% 54.9%±10.8 51.5%
FH crosscourt 24% 49.2%±11.0 52.7%
BH through the middle 22% 44.1%±11.2 46.8%
FH through the middle 12% 40.5%±13.1 47.0%
BH crosscourt 11% 48.2%±13.5 49.1%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 120 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 64% 49.1%±8.3 48.0%
BH down the line 18% 45.9%±12.6 46.5%
BH through the middle 13% 52.1%±13.7 43.8%

Serve under pressure

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 50% 78% ▲ 78% / 73%
Body 15% 11% 71% / 63%
T 35% 11% ▼ 82% / 75%

283 normal · 9 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 27% 45% ▲ 69% / 73%
Body 27% 41% ▲ 66% / 63%
T 46% 14% ▼ 71% / 72%

240 normal · 22 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide51% 71.6%±5.6 n=148 50%
Body15% 75.2%±8.3 n=43 2% ▼
T35% 75.5%±6.2 n=101 48% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.60).
Optimal mix: +0.7 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide29% 62.6%±7.8 n=75 42% ▲
Body28% 57.6%±8.0 n=73 15% ▼
T44% 60.6%±6.7 n=114 43%

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.65).
Optimal mix: +0.5 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.62 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: +2.6±7.1 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (163 repeats, 377 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 22 35% −2.2±10.9
1stAd courtT 75 32% +3.8±7.5
1stAd courtWide 81 29% +1.7±7.1
1stDeuce courtBody 32 37% +0.4±10.1
1stDeuce courtT 89 32% +7.3±7.1
1stDeuce courtWide 107 26% −0.8±6.2
2ndAd courtBody 49 52% +2.3±9.2
2ndAd courtT 17 59% +9.8±11.8
2ndAd courtWide 49 64% +15.6±8.9
2ndDeuce courtBody 34 48% −1.0±10.3
2ndDeuce courtT 40 46% −4.1±9.8
2ndDeuce courtWide 31 52% +3.4±10.5

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Luca Van Assche's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Body serve (ad court) → FH down the line used 5.9% · won 65% · −8.7±11.0 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 10.0% · won 60% · +7.4±11.2 vs own baseline
  2. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, mid used 8.7% · won 53% · +1.0±11.8 vs own baseline
  3. vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle, mid used 8.7% · won 49% · −3.0±11.8 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. FH down the line → FH crosscourt used 3.3% · won 68% · +12.7±10.9 vs own baseline
  2. FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 5.8% · won 62% · +7.1±9.7 vs own baseline
  3. BH through the middle → BH crosscourt used 3.6% · won 63% · +8.3±11.0 vs own baseline
  4. FH crosscourt → FH through the middle used 3.7% · won 60% · +5.3±11.0 vs own baseline
  5. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 7.8% · won 58% · +3.3±8.9 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Luca Van Assche wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH through the middle used 1.4% · won 63% · +9.1±11.2 vs own baseline · +27.4 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Murphy Cassone (4/6), Casper Ruud (6/6)
  2. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 1.8% · won 60% · +6.3±10.5 vs own baseline · +17.9 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Maximilian Neuchrist (5/9), Nishesh Basavareddy (6/9)
  3. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 2.1% · won 58% · +4.0±10.2 vs own baseline · +12.1 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Lorenzo Musetti (4/10), Casper Ruud (3/7)
  4. BH crosscourt → BH slice crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 1.1% · won 57% · +2.7±12.2 vs own baseline · +8.0 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Lorenzo Musetti (5/10), Maximilian Neuchrist (5/7)
  5. FH down the line → BH through the middle → FH down the line used 0.8% · won 56% · +2.3±12.9 vs own baseline · +7.3 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Lorenzo Musetti (6/9)
  6. FH down the line → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 1.7% · won 55% · +1.4±10.8 vs own baseline · +7.3 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

FH to the middle · rally+1.4122
FH to their backhand · rally+1.3265
FH to the middle · return+0.8120
BH to the middle · return+0.7129
FH to their forehand · rally+0.7246

Most exposed to

FH to their backhand · rally−1.6166
FH to their forehand · rally−1.5250
BH to the middle · rally−1.2128
T 1st serve · deuce court+0.1134
Wide 1st serve · deuce court+0.2158

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Adrian Andreev, Alex Molcan, Rafael Nadal, Hugo Gaston, Daniel Evans

Charted matches