United Cup · RR · Hard · 31 Dec 2022
Nuria Parrizas Diaz v Katie Swan
66–85 in points · Katie Swan won
Why it went the way it did
Katie Swan won 10.7 more points than Nuria Parrizas Diaz relative to what the serve alone predicted. Nuria Parrizas Diaz's biggest leaks: return shot selection −0.6, serve 2nd execution −0.6, slice shot selection −0.6.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Nuria Parrizas Diaz | Katie Swan | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.5 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | −0.4 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +4.3 | +4.3 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.6 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +0.6 |
| Return | ±0.0 | −0.6 | +0.1 | −0.5 | −0.2 | +0.9 | +4.9 | +5.6 |
| Forehand | +0.6 | +2.5 | +3.6 | +6.7 | ±0.0 | +1.5 | +5.6 | +7.1 |
| Backhand | +0.1 | +1.0 | +0.6 | +1.7 | −0.3 | +1.0 | +1.9 | +2.5 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.4 | −0.9 | −0.2 | −1.9 | −0.5 | −2.7 |
| Net | +0.3 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.2 | +0.4 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.3 | +0.5 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.2 | −0.4 |
| All shots | +0.5 | +2.4 | +3.7 | +6.7 | −0.9 | +1.4 | +16.9 | +17.4 |
Set by set
| Set | Nuria Parrizas Diaz | Katie Swan | Net, Nuria | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +6.9 | +2.7 | +4.1 | |
| 2 | ±0.0 | +7.2 | −7.1 | |
| 3 | −0.3 | +7.5 | −7.7 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Nuria Parrizas Diaz serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 69% 65% | 24% 57% | 7% 100% |
| 2 | 56% 29% | 24% 50% | 20% 40% |
| 3 | 23% 43% | 53% 44% | 23% 57% |
Set to set +0.82 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.23 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Katie Swan serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38% 22% | 17% 50% | 46% 73% |
| 2 | 35% 63% | 22% 60% | 43% 70% |
| 3 | 30% 83% | 25% 80% | 45% 78% |
Set to set +0.62 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −1.02 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Nuria Parrizas Diaz
6.5 points left on the table across 311 shots 2.08 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×8; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.43 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit BH through the middle ×9; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.42 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.31 pts
Katie Swan
7.9 points left on the table across 315 shots 2.51 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×14; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.60 pts
- Return +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×7; FH down the line rates higher · 0.45 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.42 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×8; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.38 pts