RallyIQ

WTA · Right-handed · 5 charted matches · 2019–2026

Katie Swan

Shot expected value

The share of points Katie Swan goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 50% to the average player · 113 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 27% 57.9%±11.4 52.7%
FH through the middle 18% 42.9%±12.9 45.8%
BH through the middle 18% 48.1%±13.0 46.2%
FH down the line 18% 56.1%±12.9 52.2%
BH crosscourt 12% 58.1%±14.1 50.9%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 43% to the average player · 71 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 42% 62.7%±11.3 46.7%
FH through the middle 31% 41.1%±12.5 41.3%
FH down the line 18% 54.5%±14.3 44.9%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 45% to the average player · 70 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 60% 50.8%±10.4 47.6%
BH through the middle 40% 34.7%±11.3 43.3%

Return +1: drive to your middle

position worth 50% to the average player · 63 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH through the middle 27% 46.6%±13.5 46.2%
FH crosscourt 22% 51.4%±14.1 52.3%
FH through the middle 19% 38.5%±14.1 46.5%

Serve under pressure

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 47% 75% ▲ 69% / 66%
Body 20% 0% ▼ 66% / 57%
T 33% 25% 70% / 68%

138 normal · 4 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 30% 47% ▲ 70% / 66%
Body 12% 6% 62% / 56%
T 58% 47% ▼ 64% / 64%

113 normal · 17 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. A direction loses 0.19 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage, measured from WTA servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints won
Wide48% 62.1%±8.1 n=68
Body20% 59.2%±10.6 n=28
T32% 57.5%±9.3 n=46

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.74).

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints won
Wide32% 68.4%±9.0 n=42
Body12% 67.0%±11.5 n=15
T56% 57.6%±8.0 n=73

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.11).

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 30 47% +3.1±10.6
1stAd courtT 35 41% +5.5±10.0
1stAd courtWide 34 32% −2.7±9.6
1stDeuce courtBody 30 41% −1.3±10.5
1stDeuce courtT 32 38% +6.0±10.1
1stDeuce courtWide 49 34% +0.4±8.8
2ndAd courtBody 27 59% +3.8±10.7
2ndAd courtT 10 61% +6.2±12.7
2ndAd courtWide 20 52% −1.4±11.6
2ndDeuce courtBody 36 54% −0.9±10.1
2ndDeuce courtT 14 56% +0.4±12.3
2ndDeuce courtWide 9 52% −2.2±13.2

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Katie Swan's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Not enough data

Return

  1. Not enough data

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 13.1% · won 66% · +9.3±11.4 vs own baseline

Charted matches