Australian Open · R128 · Hard · 16 Jan 2023
Cristian Garin v Sebastian Korda
96–112 in points · Sebastian Korda won
Why it went the way it did
Sebastian Korda won 7.7 more points than Cristian Garin relative to what the serve alone predicted. Cristian Garin's biggest leaks: serve 1st execution −4.4, backhand execution −3.2, slice shot selection −1.3.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Cristian Garin | Sebastian Korda | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −4.4 | −4.7 | +0.2 | −0.1 | +0.7 | +0.9 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | −0.1 | +0.9 | +0.9 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 |
| Return | −0.1 | +0.9 | −0.1 | +0.7 | −0.3 | +1.0 | −2.7 | −2.1 |
| Forehand | −0.6 | +2.1 | −0.1 | +1.5 | −0.6 | +2.9 | +4.8 | +7.1 |
| Backhand | −0.2 | +1.2 | −3.2 | −2.3 | +0.3 | ±0.0 | −1.2 | −0.8 |
| Slice | −0.2 | −1.3 | ±0.0 | −1.5 | +0.3 | −1.1 | +0.1 | −0.7 |
| Net | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.3 | +0.6 | −0.4 | −1.8 | −1.5 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.4 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | +0.2 | −0.4 | −1.0 | −1.2 |
| Other | −0.1 | −0.5 | −0.1 | −0.7 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | −1.0 | +2.0 | −7.0 | −6.0 | +0.8 | +2.0 | −1.1 | +1.8 |
Set by set
| Set | Cristian Garin | Sebastian Korda | Net, Cristian | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +0.5 | +4.8 | −4.3 | |
| 2 | +3.3 | −2.4 | +5.7 | |
| 3 | −6.2 | −4.3 | −1.9 | |
| 4 | −3.6 | +3.6 | −7.2 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Cristian Garin serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 52% 47% | 9% 67% | 39% 62% |
| 2 | 22% 60% | 9% 100% | 70% 75% |
| 3 | 42% 50% | 13% 100% | 46% 64% |
| 4 | 48% 45% | 4% 100% | 48% 55% |
Set to set −1.12 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −1.16 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Sebastian Korda serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 39% 55% | 4% 100% | 57% 75% |
| 2 | 48% 50% | 5% 0% | 48% 50% |
| 3 | 42% 63% | 5% 50% | 53% 75% |
| 4 | 39% 100% | – | 61% 82% |
Set to set +0.75 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.03 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Cristian Garin
8.9 points left on the table across 389 shots 2.30 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×15; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.58 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle ×8; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.44 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×8; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.41 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×9; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.38 pts
Sebastian Korda
8.5 points left on the table across 405 shots 2.09 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×9; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.46 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×4; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.37 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.37 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×8; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.33 pts