RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 49 charted matches · 2021–2026

Sebastian Korda

Archetype: Ad-court T server · Two-fisted driver

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 65.7% ±2.4 raw 63.8% · tour 63.4% · 4,368 points
Return points won 37.2% ±2.5 raw 34.0% · tour 36.6% · 4,328 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice +0.27 ±0.03 better than 97% of ATP · raw +0.27
Shot selection +0.11 ±0.10 better than 66% of ATP · raw +0.10
Execution −0.70 ±0.32 better than 37% of ATP · raw −0.75
Tactical adaptability +0.19 first serves toward what's working, set to set · 48 matches
Adaptation speed +0.08 same, every two to three service games · per 100 first serves
Long-rally execution −0.32 ±0.51 shot 9 on v own earlier rally shots · 2,381 shots · better than 34% of ATP
Points left on the table 2.12 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 98% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 21,205 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Sebastian Korda goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 1,246 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 49% 47.9%±3.3 47.6%
BH through the middle 17% 36.9%±5.3 43.7%
BH slice crosscourt 14% 43.7%±5.9 42.5%
BH down the line 9% 44.1%±7.2 46.4%
FH inside-out 4% 52.1%±10.3 51.8%
BH slice through the middle 3% 33.4%±10.3 35.1%
BH slice down the line 2% 38.5%±12.7 37.1%
BH drop shot down the line 1% 44.4%±13.4 47.2%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 1,007 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 28% 50.5%±4.8 52.7%
FH down the line 19% 48.7%±5.7 51.5%
BH crosscourt 15% 46.1%±6.3 49.1%
FH through the middle 12% 52.4%±6.8 47.0%
BH through the middle 10% 46.2%±7.4 46.8%
BH down the line 7% 47.9%±8.8 48.3%
FH down the line + approach 3% 74.7%±10.4 70.5%
BH slice crosscourt 2% 53.5%±13.0 47.0%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 905 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 46% 40.6%±3.9 46.6%
FH down the line 22% 43.4%±5.5 44.7%
FH through the middle 22% 38.4%±5.4 41.5%
FH slice through the middle 4% 21.7%±9.1 24.5%
FH slice crosscourt 3% 30.0%±11.4 30.9%
FH slice down the line 1% 28.5%±13.1 25.6%
FH down the line + approach 1% 69.5%±13.8 69.3%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 660 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 41% 44.0%±4.8 48.0%
BH slice crosscourt 20% 44.1%±6.6 42.1%
BH through the middle 16% 43.6%±7.2 43.8%
BH down the line 12% 41.5%±8.2 46.5%
BH slice through the middle 4% 35.6%±11.7 35.1%
BH slice down the line 2% 42.1%±13.5 35.8%
FH inside-out 2% 54.8%±14.5 52.6%
BH drop shot down the line 2% 43.7%±14.7 47.8%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +7 How much less varied Sebastian Korda's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 338 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 44% 43% 70% / 73%
Body 5% 3% 60% / 63%
T 52% 55% 74% / 75%

2,206 normal · 75 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 56% 56% 71% / 73%
Body 3% 1% 67% / 63%
T 40% 43% 72% / 72%

1,818 normal · 263 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide44% 63.8%±2.5 n=994 35% ▼
Body5% 60.2%±6.8 n=109 0% ▼
T52% 65.5%±2.3 n=1,178 65% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.55).
Optimal mix: +0.4 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide56% 62.6%±2.3 n=1,173 46% ▼
Body3% 65.5%±8.2 n=60 0% ▼
T41% 63.2%±2.7 n=848 54% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.66).
Optimal mix: +0.2 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.30 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: +3.0±2.8 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (1,892 repeats, 2,372 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 124 32% −5.1±6.2
1stAd courtT 575 25% −3.5±2.9
1stAd courtWide 607 26% −1.6±2.8
1stDeuce courtBody 141 39% +2.5±6.1
1stDeuce courtT 568 24% −1.2±2.9
1stDeuce courtWide 702 23% −4.3±2.6
2ndAd courtBody 266 48% −1.5±4.8
2ndAd courtT 150 53% +3.9±6.1
2ndAd courtWide 341 47% −1.3±4.3
2ndDeuce courtBody 333 50% +0.8±4.3
2ndDeuce courtT 320 48% −2.0±4.4
2ndDeuce courtWide 194 51% +3.0±5.5

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Sebastian Korda's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. T serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 3.6% · won 62% · −5.4±6.1 vs own baseline
  2. Wide serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 2.7% · won 60% · −7.4±6.8 vs own baseline
  3. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 2.1% · won 57% · −9.8±7.6 vs own baseline
  4. T serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 2.4% · won 55% · −11.6±7.4 vs own baseline
  5. T serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 2.9% · won 56% · −11.3±6.8 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle, deep used 3.2% · won 54% · +15.9±7.0 vs own baseline
  2. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, deep used 3.2% · won 54% · +16.0±7.1 vs own baseline
  3. vs T serve (ad court) → FH through the middle, deep used 2.5% · won 48% · +10.8±7.8 vs own baseline
  4. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 4.2% · won 46% · +8.3±6.3 vs own baseline
  5. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, short used 3.0% · won 46% · +8.6±7.2 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 3.7% · won 53% · +6.5±6.1 vs own baseline
  2. FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 5.0% · won 52% · +5.6±5.3 vs own baseline
  3. BH crosscourt → BH down the line used 3.1% · won 53% · +5.7±6.5 vs own baseline
  4. BH crosscourt → FH down the line used 2.2% · won 52% · +5.3±7.5 vs own baseline
  5. FH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 3.3% · won 50% · +3.2±6.4 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Sebastian Korda wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. BH crosscourt → FH inside-out → BH crosscourt used 0.3% · won 63% · +15.0±10.5 vs own baseline · +28.1 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Tommy Paul (8/9)
  2. BH crosscourt → BH slice through the middle → FH crosscourt used 0.2% · won 61% · +13.1±11.4 vs own baseline · +18.0 vs tour on the same sequence
  3. FH through the middle → FH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 0.3% · won 59% · +10.5±10.6 vs own baseline · +15.5 vs tour on the same sequence
  4. FH crosscourt → FH through the middle → FH through the middle used 0.3% · won 58% · +9.5±10.6 vs own baseline · +16.2 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Daniil Medvedev (3/6), Hubert Hurkacz (6/7)
  5. FH down the line → BH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 0.6% · won 55% · +7.0±8.8 vs own baseline · +3.5 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Hubert Hurkacz (1/6), Alex De Minaur (6/14)
  6. FH through the middle return, deep → FH down the line → BH crosscourt used 0.2% · won 60% · +11.9±12.0 vs own baseline · +26.0 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

T 2nd serve · ad court+2.2194
BH to the middle · serve +1+2.2267
T 2nd serve · deuce court+1.7328
FH to their forehand · return +1+1.4393
FH to the middle · return +1+1.1169

Most exposed to

FH to the middle · serve +1−1.7270
FH to the middle · return−1.5671
FH to the middle · rally−1.4601
BH to their backhand · return +1−1.2388
FH to their forehand · return−1.1328

Best-equipped opponents

Active players whose shot mix lines up best against these weaknesses, by structural compatibility per 100 rally shots: Rafael Nadal +1.84, Miomir Kecmanovic +1.72, Casper Ruud +1.49, Pedro Martinez +1.41, Jack Draper +1.38

Favourable matchups

Fabian Marozsan +0.55, Miomir Kecmanovic +0.50, Pedro Martinez +0.43, Roberto Carballes Baena +0.39, Alexander Shevchenko +0.28

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Roberto Bautista Agut, Lorenzo Musetti, Pedro Martinez, Bernard Tomic, Jakub Mensik

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the ATP average, in standard deviations.

Deep returns34%
T serves · deuce52%
Wide serves · ad56%
Unforced errors / shot11.7%
Point-ending shots26.6%
FH down the line32%
T serves · ad41%
1st serve in62%
Wide serves · deuce44%
Backhand slice21%
Points at net11%
Drop shots / shot1.4%
Forehand share52%
Serve & volley5%
BH down the line19%
Avg rally length3.8
Run-around forehands14%
Chipped returns10%
Through the middle21%

Plays most like

  1. Borna Coric 2015–2025 plan v
  2. Hubert Hurkacz 2018–2026 plan v
  3. Sebastian Ofner 2022–2025 plan v
  4. Joao Fonseca 2024–2026 plan v
  5. Ugo Humbert 2019–2026 plan v
  6. David Goffin 2013–2025 plan v
  7. Laslo Djere 2018–2026 plan v
  8. Fernando Verdasco 2005–2022 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Marat Safin 1998–2009
  2. Nikolay Davydenko 2002–2014
  3. David Nalbandian 2002–2012

Charted matches