Australian Open · R128 · Hard · 16 Jan 2023
Olivia Gadecki v Polina Kudermetova
68–49 in points · Olivia Gadecki won
Why it went the way it did
Olivia Gadecki won 10.0 more points than Polina Kudermetova relative to what the serve alone predicted. Polina Kudermetova's biggest leaks: return execution −3.5, forehand execution −2.9, backhand execution −2.1.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Olivia Gadecki | Polina Kudermetova | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.3 | ±0.0 | +3.3 | +3.0 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | −0.8 | −0.6 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.3 | −1.2 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.3 |
| Return | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −1.0 | −1.4 | −0.1 | +0.3 | −3.5 | −3.3 |
| Forehand | −0.1 | +1.1 | +0.2 | +1.2 | +0.2 | +0.5 | −2.9 | −2.3 |
| Backhand | −0.1 | +0.3 | −2.0 | −1.8 | +0.3 | +0.4 | −2.1 | −1.5 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −1.2 | −0.4 | −1.6 | ±0.0 | −0.8 | −0.7 | −1.5 |
| Net | +0.2 | +0.3 | +0.3 | +0.9 | −0.1 | +0.1 | −1.0 | −1.0 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | −0.7 | +0.1 | −0.6 |
| All shots | −0.4 | +0.1 | −0.6 | −1.0 | +0.4 | −0.2 | −11.2 | −11.0 |
Set by set
| Set | Olivia Gadecki | Polina Kudermetova | Net, Olivia | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −2.9 | −6.7 | +3.7 | |
| 2 | +1.9 | −4.4 | +6.3 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Olivia Gadecki serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 36% 67% | 36% 83% | 27% 78% |
| 2 | 50% 82% | 27% 100% | 23% 40% |
Set to set −1.76 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.38 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Polina Kudermetova serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 35% 53% | 14% 83% | 51% 64% |
| 2 | 53% 60% | 5% 0% | 42% 38% |
Set to set +0.28 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.10 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Olivia Gadecki
4.0 points left on the table across 150 shots 2.64 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×3; BH down the line rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your middle hit FH through the middle + approach ×1; FH down the line + approach rates higher · 0.17 pts
Polina Kudermetova
3.5 points left on the table across 146 shots 2.42 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your middle hit BH through the middle + approach ×1; BH down the line + approach rates higher · 0.20 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit BH through the middle ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts