RallyIQ

WTA · Right-handed · 6 charted matches · 2023–2025

Polina Kudermetova

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 57.5% ±4.0 raw 56.5% · tour 56.3% · 370 points
Return points won 41.7% ±4.0 raw 37.9% · tour 43.7% · 364 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Shot expected value

The share of points Polina Kudermetova goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 43% to the average player · 72 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 44% 44.9%±11.3 46.7%
FH through the middle 28% 40.7%±12.8 41.3%
FH down the line 28% 42.4%±12.9 44.9%

Return +1: drive to your middle

position worth 50% to the average player · 58 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 29% 44.5%±13.4 52.3%
BH crosscourt 26% 49.0%±13.9 50.8%
BH through the middle 24% 47.8%±14.1 46.2%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 50% to the average player · 52 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 40% 42.8%±12.7 52.7%
FH down the line 27% 57.2%±14.0 52.2%
BH crosscourt 23% 56.8%±14.4 50.9%

Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 51 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 24% 54.7%±14.5 52.5%
FH crosscourt 22% 57.4%±14.6 54.0%
BH through the middle 20% 44.2%±14.9 46.3%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +16 How much less varied Polina Kudermetova's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 42 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 40% 82% ▲ 68% / 66%
Body 11% 0% ▼ 64% / 57%
T 49% 18% ▼ 64% / 68%

181 normal · 11 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 56% 61% 61% / 66%
Body 6% 6% 57% / 56%
T 37% 32% 65% / 64%

147 normal · 31 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. A direction loses 0.19 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage, measured from WTA servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints won
Wide42% 64.7%±7.5 n=81
Body10% 64.3%±11.1 n=20
T47% 60.9%±7.3 n=91

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.73).

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints won
Wide57% 47.2%±7.1 n=102
Body6% 52.8%±12.8 n=11
T37% 51.1%±8.4 n=65

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.53).

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: −3.0±8.3 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (120 repeats, 238 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 26 38% −6.1±10.7
1stAd courtT 54 40% +4.5±8.8
1stAd courtWide 31 27% −7.7±9.3
1stDeuce courtBody 39 39% −3.8±9.7
1stDeuce courtT 30 26% −6.1±9.3
1stDeuce courtWide 55 28% −5.5±8.1
2ndAd courtBody 22 53% −2.1±11.4
2ndAd courtT 16 58% +2.6±12.0
2ndAd courtWide 24 59% +5.8±11.0
2ndDeuce courtBody 29 55% +0.4±10.7
2ndDeuce courtT 14 52% −4.2±12.4
2ndDeuce courtWide 23 46% −8.2±11.3

Charted matches