Rio de Janeiro · R32 · Clay · 22 Feb 2023
Sebastian Baez v Thomaz Bellucci
72–51 in points · Sebastian Baez won
Why it went the way it did
Sebastian Baez won 12.8 more points than Thomaz Bellucci relative to what the serve alone predicted. Thomaz Bellucci's biggest leaks: forehand execution −5.8, serve 1st execution −3.1, return execution −3.1.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Sebastian Baez | Thomaz Bellucci | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.2 | −0.1 | −1.1 | −1.5 | +0.1 | +0.1 | −3.1 | −2.9 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +0.6 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.3 |
| Return | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −3.1 | −3.1 | −0.1 | +0.1 | −3.1 | −3.0 |
| Forehand | +0.4 | +2.0 | −1.6 | +0.8 | +1.1 | +2.5 | −5.8 | −2.2 |
| Backhand | −0.3 | +0.1 | +2.9 | +2.7 | −0.3 | +0.2 | −2.3 | −2.3 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −1.4 | +0.8 | −0.5 | −0.1 | −0.5 | +0.1 | −0.5 |
| Net | +0.3 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −2.4 | −2.5 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.3 | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −0.4 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | −0.2 |
| Other | ±0.0 | +0.1 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | +0.2 | +0.3 | −1.8 | −1.3 | +0.4 | +2.4 | −16.9 | −14.0 |
Set by set
| Set | Sebastian Baez | Thomaz Bellucci | Net, Sebastian | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −1.0 | −6.4 | +5.5 | |
| 2 | −0.3 | −7.6 | +7.3 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Sebastian Baez serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 41% 75% | 31% 67% | 28% 88% |
| 2 | 43% 80% | 13% 100% | 43% 60% |
Set to set +0.06 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +1.51 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Thomaz Bellucci serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 48% 69% | 15% 40% | 36% 50% |
| 2 | 53% 40% | 5% 50% | 42% 63% |
Set to set −0.30 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.21 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Sebastian Baez
5.6 points left on the table across 239 shots 2.35 per 100 shots
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×10; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.39 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.33 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×7; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.19 pts
Thomaz Bellucci
6.2 points left on the table across 233 shots 2.66 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit FH down the line ×2; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.44 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×8; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.31 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts