RallyIQ

ATP · Left-handed · 9 charted matches · 2011–2023

Thomaz Bellucci

Archetype: Rallies through the middle · Crosscourt backhand

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 64.3% ±3.2 raw 61.6% · tour 63.4% · 743 points
Return points won 34.8% ±3.3 raw 32.4% · tour 36.6% · 689 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice +0.06 ±0.12 better than 72% of ATP · raw +0.06
Shot selection +0.51 ±0.24 better than 94% of ATP · raw +0.51
Execution −1.49 ±1.07 better than 10% of ATP · raw −1.40
Points left on the table 2.49 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 62% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 3,488 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Thomaz Bellucci goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 227 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 41% 39.4%±7.6 47.6%
BH through the middle 24% 35.7%±9.1 43.7%
BH down the line 15% 42.3%±11.0 46.4%
FH inside-in 7% 55.4%±13.6 54.7%
FH inside-out 5% 56.0%±14.7 51.8%
BH slice through the middle 4% 30.1%±13.8 35.1%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 173 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 25% 45.3%±10.3 52.7%
FH down the line 19% 62.8%±10.9 51.5%
BH through the middle 17% 39.5%±11.5 46.8%
FH through the middle 16% 48.8%±11.9 47.0%
BH crosscourt 14% 42.8%±12.3 49.1%
BH down the line 6% 31.1%±13.7 48.3%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 158 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 64% 39.9%±7.3 46.6%
FH through the middle 19% 38.6%±11.3 41.5%
FH down the line 13% 34.0%±12.2 44.7%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 153 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 41% 36.9%±8.7 48.0%
BH through the middle 27% 35.1%±10.0 43.8%
BH down the line 16% 45.1%±12.2 46.5%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +6 How much less varied Thomaz Bellucci's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 58 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 54% 38% ▼ 73% / 73%
Body 12% 25% ▲ 64% / 63%
T 33% 38% 68% / 75%

362 normal · 16 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 53% 62% ▲ 66% / 73%
Body 10% 5% 61% / 63%
T 37% 33% 74% / 72%

307 normal · 42 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide53% 60.9%±5.3 n=202 59% ▲
Body13% 61.2%±9.0 n=49 0% ▼
T34% 60.7%±6.4 n=127 41% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 1.00).
Optimal mix: +0.5 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide54% 61.8%±5.4 n=189 51% ▼
Body9% 61.3%±10.1 n=33 0% ▼
T36% 64.7%±6.3 n=127 49% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.75).
Optimal mix: +0.5 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.46 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: +4.8±3.6 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (262 repeats, 447 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 20 42% +5.2±11.5
1stAd courtT 95 30% +1.9±6.7
1stAd courtWide 80 22% −5.3±6.5
1stDeuce courtBody 20 36% −0.7±11.2
1stDeuce courtT 89 24% −1.1±6.4
1stDeuce courtWide 120 27% +0.3±6.0
2ndAd courtBody 34 48% −1.2±10.3
2ndAd courtT 53 43% −6.2±8.9
2ndAd courtWide 38 45% −3.5±9.9
2ndDeuce courtBody 37 40% −9.2±9.8
2ndDeuce courtT 14 50% +0.1±12.4
2ndDeuce courtWide 78 44% −4.2±7.9

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Thomaz Bellucci's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Body serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 5.0% · won 73% · −1.1±10.3 vs own baseline
  2. T serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 6.0% · won 64% · −10.1±10.6 vs own baseline
  3. Wide serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 7.4% · won 63% · −11.5±10.0 vs own baseline
  4. Wide serve (ad court) → FH down the line used 8.6% · won 62% · −11.7±9.6 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs wide serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, mid used 13.4% · won 43% · +3.4±9.9 vs own baseline
  2. vs wide serve (deuce court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 7.7% · won 44% · +4.2±11.7 vs own baseline
  3. vs T serve (ad court) → BH through the middle, mid used 10.7% · won 41% · +1.6±10.6 vs own baseline
  4. vs wide serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt, mid used 7.7% · won 36% · −3.8±11.3 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. BH crosscourt → BH down the line used 4.6% · won 43% · +7.6±10.8 vs own baseline
  2. FH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 8.5% · won 40% · +3.9±8.8 vs own baseline
  3. BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 4.7% · won 39% · +3.5±10.5 vs own baseline
  4. FH through the middle → BH crosscourt used 5.8% · won 39% · +2.9±9.9 vs own baseline
  5. BH through the middle → BH crosscourt used 5.6% · won 36% · +0.3±9.9 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Thomaz Bellucci wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. FH crosscourt → BH through the middle → FH down the line used 1.5% · won 52% · +9.7±11.5 vs own baseline · +7.6 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Sebastian Baez (2/6), Novak Djokovic (4/7)
  2. BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → BH down the line used 1.6% · won 45% · +2.1±11.2 vs own baseline · −1.5 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Novak Djokovic (6/11)
  3. FH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → FH through the middle used 0.9% · won 43% · +0.5±12.8 vs own baseline · +1.1 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Novak Djokovic (2/7)
  4. FH crosscourt → BH down the line → BH crosscourt used 1.9% · won 41% · −1.1±10.7 vs own baseline · −8.3 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Denis Istomin (2/8), Novak Djokovic (7/19)
  5. FH crosscourt → BH through the middle → BH crosscourt used 1.3% · won 41% · −1.6±11.7 vs own baseline · −10.6 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Novak Djokovic (6/14)
  6. FH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 2.8% · won 39% · −3.3±9.3 vs own baseline · −10.9 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

FH to their backhand · serve +1+0.6140
Wide 1st serve · ad court+0.5175
FH to their backhand · rally+0.4303
BH to their forehand · rally+0.3229
Wide 1st serve · deuce court−0.3183

Most exposed to

BH to their forehand · rally−2.2182
FH to their backhand · rally−1.2300
BH to the middle · rally−0.2137
Wide 1st serve · deuce court+0.2157
Wide 1st serve · ad court+0.2138

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Juncheng Shang, Pedro Martinez, Learner Tien, Miomir Kecmanovic, Nishesh Basavareddy

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the ATP average, in standard deviations.

Wide serves · deuce53%
Unforced errors / shot12.0%
Drop shots / shot2.3%
Wide serves · ad54%
Forehand share56%
Avg rally length4.2
Deep returns29%
BH down the line21%
Point-ending shots24.0%
Run-around forehands19%
1st serve in60%
Through the middle24%
T serves · ad36%
Serve & volley2%
Points at net9%
Chipped returns8%
Backhand slice10%
FH down the line24%
T serves · deuce34%

Plays most like

  1. Roman Safiullin 2017–2025 plan v
  2. Arthur Fils 2023–2026 plan v
  3. Luca Nardi 2022–2025 plan v
  4. Leonardo Mayer 2014–2019 plan v
  5. Alexander Shevchenko 2023–2026 plan v
  6. Carlos Alcaraz 2019–2026 plan v
  7. Alejandro Tabilo 2021–2026 plan v
  8. Jannik Sinner 2013–2026 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Magnus Norman 2000–2001
  2. Andre Agassi 1988–2006
  3. Marcelo Rios 1995–2001

Charted matches