Indian Wells Masters · R128 · Hard · 9 Mar 2023
Federico Coria v Diego Schwartzman
38–64 in points · Diego Schwartzman won
Why it went the way it did
Diego Schwartzman won 14.5 more points than Federico Coria relative to what the serve alone predicted. Federico Coria's biggest leaks: forehand execution −7.4, backhand execution −3.0, slice shot selection −1.8.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Federico Coria | Diego Schwartzman | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.1 | −0.1 | +0.9 | +0.8 | −0.3 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.4 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.9 | −0.9 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −0.5 |
| Return | −0.2 | +0.4 | +2.4 | +2.6 | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +4.1 | +4.7 |
| Forehand | −1.1 | +0.9 | −7.4 | −7.5 | −1.0 | +0.9 | +2.3 | +2.2 |
| Backhand | −0.6 | −0.3 | −3.0 | −3.8 | −0.5 | −0.2 | +1.6 | +0.9 |
| Slice | −0.3 | −1.8 | +0.2 | −1.9 | −0.3 | −2.8 | −0.6 | −3.6 |
| Net | −0.1 | +0.3 | −0.7 | −0.5 | −0.3 | +0.1 | −0.7 | −0.9 |
| Touch | −0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | −0.2 | +0.8 | +0.7 |
| All shots | −2.3 | −0.4 | −8.5 | −11.3 | −2.3 | −1.6 | +7.0 | +3.1 |
Set by set
| Set | Federico Coria | Diego Schwartzman | Net, Federico | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −5.7 | +3.7 | −9.4 | |
| 2 | −5.6 | −0.6 | −5.1 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Federico Coria serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 40% 42% | 17% 20% | 43% 46% |
| 2 | 41% 36% | 7% 0% | 52% 50% |
Set to set ±0.00 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.81 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Diego Schwartzman serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 29% 50% | 21% 67% | 50% 100% |
| 2 | 33% 50% | 23% 57% | 43% 69% |
Within sets −1.52 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Federico Coria
8.8 points left on the table across 273 shots 3.22 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×8; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.99 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×17; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.66 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×8; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.46 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×10; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.42 pts
Diego Schwartzman
8.0 points left on the table across 271 shots 2.97 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×8; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.99 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your middle hit BH through the middle ×7; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.60 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×9; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.51 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit BH through the middle ×14; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.32 pts