RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 10 charted matches · 2019–2025

Federico Coria

Archetype: Avoids the wide serve · Ad-court slider

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 60.7% ±3.5 raw 56.4% · tour 63.4% · 695 points
Return points won 36.5% ±3.5 raw 37.3% · tour 36.6% · 668 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice −0.34 ±0.20 better than 4% of ATP · raw −0.34
Shot selection +0.03 ±0.29 better than 55% of ATP · raw +0.05
Execution −0.60 ±0.80 better than 41% of ATP · raw −0.38
Tactical adaptability −0.03 first serves toward what's working, set to set · 10 matches
Adaptation speed −0.11 same, every two to three service games · per 100 first serves
Points left on the table 2.98 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 20% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 3,873 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Federico Coria goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 315 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 37% 47.8%±7.1 47.6%
BH through the middle 31% 37.4%±7.4 43.7%
BH down the line 15% 39.8%±9.9 46.4%
FH inside-out 10% 48.7%±11.6 51.8%
FH inside-in 3% 59.8%±14.7 54.7%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 230 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH down the line 28% 40.8%±8.8 51.5%
FH through the middle 26% 46.1%±9.2 47.0%
FH crosscourt 24% 52.0%±9.4 52.7%
BH through the middle 14% 50.7%±11.4 46.8%
BH crosscourt 8% 35.4%±12.6 49.1%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 168 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH through the middle 36% 38.5%±8.9 43.8%
BH crosscourt 31% 43.9%±9.6 48.0%
BH down the line 16% 41.0%±11.8 46.5%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 149 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH down the line 33% 39.1%±9.7 44.7%
FH through the middle 32% 42.2%±9.9 41.5%
FH crosscourt 29% 44.9%±10.3 46.6%
FH slice through the middle 7% 26.4%±13.2 24.5%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index −1 How much less varied Federico Coria's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 75 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 35% 19% ▼ 61% / 73%
Body 14% 25% ▲ 62% / 63%
T 51% 56% 60% / 75%

344 normal · 16 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 56% 63% 65% / 73%
Body 5% 8% 56% / 63%
T 38% 29% ▼ 69% / 72%

265 normal · 59 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide34% 54.0%±6.7 n=122 47% ▲
Body15% 60.3%±8.8 n=53 2% ▼
T51% 55.4%±5.6 n=185 51%

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.45).
Optimal mix: +0.2 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide57% 55.3%±5.6 n=186 50% ▼
Body6% 50.2%±11.7 n=19 0% ▼
T37% 58.6%±6.6 n=119 50% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.31).
Optimal mix: +0.5 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.35 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: −2.5±4.6 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (315 repeats, 349 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 29 31% −6.3±9.9
1stAd courtT 68 28% −0.1±7.5
1stAd courtWide 94 36% +8.4±7.1
1stDeuce courtBody 27 33% −3.4±10.3
1stDeuce courtT 93 19% −5.9±5.8
1stDeuce courtWide 84 31% +3.7±7.1
2ndAd courtBody 20 54% +4.2±11.6
2ndAd courtT 18 47% −1.8±11.9
2ndAd courtWide 84 50% +2.1±7.7
2ndDeuce courtBody 38 55% +6.4±9.9
2ndDeuce courtT 70 51% +1.2±8.2
2ndDeuce courtWide 34 44% −3.7±10.2

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Federico Coria's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Wide serve (ad court) → FH down the line used 5.9% · won 68% · +5.5±10.2 vs own baseline
  2. T serve (ad court) → FH down the line used 5.3% · won 64% · +1.9±10.8 vs own baseline
  3. T serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 5.0% · won 58% · −4.4±11.2 vs own baseline
  4. Body serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 5.0% · won 54% · −8.2±11.3 vs own baseline
  5. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 5.5% · won 52% · −10.2±11.1 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, short used 8.0% · won 47% · +6.9±11.3 vs own baseline
  2. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 10.8% · won 45% · +4.0±10.4 vs own baseline
  3. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, mid used 8.7% · won 42% · +1.6±11.0 vs own baseline
  4. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH through the middle, mid used 7.3% · won 42% · +0.9±11.5 vs own baseline
  5. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle used 7.3% · won 38% · −3.0±11.3 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. FH crosscourt → FH through the middle used 3.0% · won 50% · +8.3±11.3 vs own baseline
  2. FH down the line → FH crosscourt used 3.5% · won 47% · +4.8±10.9 vs own baseline
  3. FH down the line → FH down the line used 2.8% · won 46% · +4.4±11.5 vs own baseline
  4. BH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 3.5% · won 45% · +3.0±10.8 vs own baseline
  5. FH crosscourt → BH through the middle used 2.6% · won 45% · +3.3±11.6 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Federico Coria wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 1.1% · won 49% · +5.1±11.7 vs own baseline · +5.8 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Luciano Darderi (3/6), Francisco Cerundolo (5/8)
  2. FH down the line → BH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 1.3% · won 48% · +4.3±11.4 vs own baseline · −2.7 vs tour on the same sequence
  3. FH down the line → BH through the middle → FH down the line used 0.8% · won 46% · +2.7±12.5 vs own baseline · −2.7 vs tour on the same sequence
  4. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH through the middle used 0.7% · won 42% · −1.4±12.9 vs own baseline · −4.6 vs tour on the same sequence
  5. BH through the middle → FH crosscourt → FH through the middle used 0.9% · won 42% · −1.6±12.1 vs own baseline · −0.3 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Thiemo De Bakker (2/6)
  6. BH through the middle → FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 0.8% · won 41% · −2.4±12.7 vs own baseline · −4.3 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

FH to the middle · return+2.2140
BH to the middle · return+0.6165
Wide 1st serve · ad court+0.3186
BH to the middle · rally+0.2231
Wide 1st serve · deuce court−0.1122

Most exposed to

FH to their forehand · serve +1−2.6130
BH to the middle · return−2.3134
FH to their backhand · rally−0.4271
FH to their forehand · rally−0.1253
BH to their backhand · rally+0.1249

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Luciano Darderi, Brandon Nakashima, Milos Raonic, Francisco Cerundolo, Rinky Hijikata

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the ATP average, in standard deviations.

Through the middle33%
1st serve in68%
Avg rally length4.8
FH down the line36%
Wide serves · ad57%
Forehand share59%
T serves · deuce51%
Run-around forehands26%
Drop shots / shot2.0%
Deep returns27%
BH down the line19%
T serves · ad37%
Serve & volley0%
Unforced errors / shot8.3%
Backhand slice9%
Points at net5%
Chipped returns4%
Point-ending shots16.8%
Wide serves · deuce34%

Plays most like

  1. Juan Pablo Varillas 2021–2025 plan v
  2. Roberto Bautista Agut 2013–2026 plan v
  3. Gael Monfils 2005–2026 plan v
  4. Mariano Navone 2022–2026 plan v
  5. Mackenzie Mcdonald 2015–2025 plan v
  6. Nuno Borges 2021–2026 plan v
  7. Daniel Elahi Galan 2020–2025 plan v
  8. Pedro Martinez 2019–2026 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Juan Carlos Ferrero 2000–2009
  2. Gaston Gaudio 2002–2005
  3. Nicolas Massu 2000–2009

Charted matches