Banja Luka · R16 · Clay · 20 Apr 2023
Dusan Lajovic v Gregoire Barrere
65–37 in points · Dusan Lajovic won
Why it went the way it did
Dusan Lajovic won 14.5 more points than Gregoire Barrere relative to what the serve alone predicted. Gregoire Barrere's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −3.1, forehand execution −2.6, backhand execution −1.2.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Dusan Lajovic | Gregoire Barrere | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.2 | ±0.0 | +3.2 | +3.3 | +0.2 | −0.1 | +0.2 | +0.2 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.5 | +1.5 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.9 | +0.9 |
| Return | +0.2 | ±0.0 | +4.2 | +4.5 | +0.2 | +0.4 | +2.5 | +3.1 |
| Forehand | +0.3 | +1.1 | +2.9 | +4.3 | +0.7 | +1.2 | −2.6 | −0.7 |
| Backhand | +0.1 | −0.3 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | −0.7 | −1.2 | −1.7 |
| Slice | −0.3 | −2.5 | +1.1 | −1.7 | −0.1 | −3.1 | +0.3 | −2.9 |
| Net | −0.4 | +0.7 | −0.8 | −0.6 | −0.4 | ±0.0 | −0.7 | −1.1 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.9 | +1.1 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.1 |
| All shots | +0.1 | −0.9 | +13.1 | +12.3 | +0.7 | −2.2 | −0.7 | −2.2 |
Set by set
| Set | Dusan Lajovic | Gregoire Barrere | Net, Dusan | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +6.3 | +2.9 | +3.4 | |
| 2 | +6.1 | −5.0 | +11.1 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Dusan Lajovic serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 54% 60% | 3% 0% | 43% 63% |
| 2 | 50% 100% | – | 50% 100% |
Within sets +0.19 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Gregoire Barrere serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50% 56% | – | 50% 44% |
| 2 | 71% 25% | – | 29% 20% |
Set to set +1.02 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −1.11 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Dusan Lajovic
5.9 points left on the table across 183 shots 3.20 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH slice through the middle ×2; FH slice down the line rates higher · 0.32 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×8; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.31 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your middle, opponent at net hit FH slice through the middle ×1; FH slice down the line rates higher · 0.31 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
Gregoire Barrere
5.5 points left on the table across 173 shots 3.19 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×4; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.65 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH down the line ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.37 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts