Stuttgart · R32 · Grass · 13 Jun 2023
Yibing Wu v Nick Kyrgios
70–56 in points · Yibing Wu won
Why it went the way it did
Yibing Wu won 5.4 more points than Nick Kyrgios relative to what the serve alone predicted. Nick Kyrgios's biggest leaks: return execution −2.8, forehand execution −2.4, backhand execution −1.8.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Yibing Wu | Nick Kyrgios | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.3 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.5 | +0.2 | −0.1 | +4.5 | +4.6 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +0.1 |
| Return | −0.3 | +0.6 | +0.8 | +1.0 | −0.2 | +0.1 | −2.8 | −2.8 |
| Forehand | −0.3 | +0.4 | +4.2 | +4.3 | −0.1 | +0.2 | −2.4 | −2.2 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | +0.1 | −0.4 | −0.4 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −1.8 | −1.9 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −0.2 | −0.4 | −0.7 | −0.1 | −0.5 | −0.2 | −0.7 |
| Net | −0.2 | −0.3 | −0.8 | −1.3 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.2 | +0.3 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | −0.2 | ±0.0 |
| Other | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.3 | −0.4 |
| All shots | −1.3 | +0.4 | +3.2 | +2.3 | −0.2 | −0.1 | −2.7 | −3.0 |
Set by set
| Set | Yibing Wu | Nick Kyrgios | Net, Yibing | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −2.0 | −2.0 | ±0.0 | |
| 2 | +4.3 | −1.0 | +5.3 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Yibing Wu serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 31% 69% | 14% 67% | 55% 65% |
| 2 | 31% 63% | 27% 86% | 42% 91% |
Set to set −0.29 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.57 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Nick Kyrgios serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 39% 64% | 3% 0% | 58% 71% |
| 2 | 45% 50% | – | 55% 67% |
Set to set −1.20 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +1.08 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Yibing Wu
3.2 points left on the table across 104 shots 3.12 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH down the line ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.34 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your backhand side hit FH through the middle ×1; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.17 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your backhand side hit BH through the middle + approach ×1; BH down the line + approach rates higher · 0.17 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.16 pts
Nick Kyrgios
3.2 points left on the table across 119 shots 2.67 per 100 shots
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×3; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit FH slice down the line ×2; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.19 pts