RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 6 charted matches · 2022–2025

Yibing Wu

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 63.8% ±3.6 raw 63.8% · tour 63.4% · 516 points
Return points won 36.6% ±3.7 raw 33.9% · tour 36.6% · 443 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice −0.11 ±0.32 better than 28% of ATP · raw −0.10
Shot selection +0.01 ±0.55 better than 53% of ATP · raw +0.02
Execution −1.46 ±0.79 better than 11% of ATP · raw −1.21

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 2,310 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Yibing Wu goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 149 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 26% 63.6%±10.3 52.7%
FH through the middle 19% 48.8%±11.9 47.0%
FH down the line 18% 53.8%±12.0 51.5%
BH through the middle 17% 54.1%±12.2 46.8%
BH crosscourt 15% 50.8%±12.5 49.1%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 105 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 54% 40.9%±9.2 47.6%
BH through the middle 24% 37.2%±11.9 43.7%
BH slice crosscourt 11% 32.8%±13.7 42.5%
BH down the line 10% 49.3%±14.8 46.4%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 63 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 43% 53.9%±12.0 46.6%
FH through the middle 22% 42.1%±13.9 41.5%
FH down the line 22% 55.7%±14.0 44.7%

Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle

position worth 54% to the average player · 53 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH down the line 38% 59.2%±12.8 53.4%
FH crosscourt 28% 54.8%±13.8 56.0%

Serve under pressure

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 38% 67% ▲ 71% / 73%
Body 12% 0% ▼ 63% / 63%
T 50% 33% ▼ 70% / 75%

263 normal · 6 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 41% 30% ▼ 72% / 73%
Body 8% 4% 69% / 63%
T 51% 67% ▲ 67% / 72%

220 normal · 27 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide39% 64.6%±6.8 n=105 52% ▲
Body12% 62.2%±10.2 n=31 0% ▼
T49% 64.9%±6.1 n=133 48% ▼

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.87).
Optimal mix: +0.6 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide40% 59.8%±7.1 n=98 34% ▼
Body8% 65.2%±11.2 n=19 0% ▼
T53% 65.2%±6.2 n=130 66% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.48).
Optimal mix: +0.4 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.46 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: −0.4±6.3 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (151 repeats, 353 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 14 30% −7.2±11.3
1stAd courtT 67 30% +2.3±7.7
1stAd courtWide 50 28% +0.5±8.2
1stDeuce courtBody 13 40% +2.9±12.3
1stDeuce courtT 61 21% −3.6±7.1
1stDeuce courtWide 82 20% −7.4±6.2
2ndAd courtBody 22 48% −1.7±11.4
2ndAd courtT 29 59% +9.7±10.5
2ndAd courtWide 27 50% +1.7±10.9
2ndDeuce courtBody 26 55% +5.8±10.9
2ndDeuce courtT 33 46% −3.8±10.3
2ndDeuce courtWide 19 44% −4.4±11.7

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Yibing Wu's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. T serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 6.6% · won 68% · −1.7±11.0 vs own baseline
  2. T serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 7.6% · won 60% · −9.3±11.1 vs own baseline

Return

  1. Not enough data

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 8.9% · won 55% · +3.6±11.8 vs own baseline
  2. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 10.7% · won 41% · −9.8±11.1 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Yibing Wu wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 1.6% · won 53% · +3.4±12.4 vs own baseline · +9.1 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Jaume Munar (4/9), Aleksandar Kovacevic (4/6)
  2. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 1.4% · won 43% · −7.4±12.8 vs own baseline · −17.1 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Jaume Munar (4/6)

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

FH to their forehand · rally+0.5130
T 1st serve · deuce court−0.4133
T 1st serve · ad court−0.5130
BH to their backhand · rally−0.5138
FH to their backhand · rally−1.7131

Most exposed to

Charted matches