Eastbourne · Q2 · Grass · 25 Jun 2023
Petra Martic v Ana Bogdan
99–96 in points · Ana Bogdan won
Why it went the way it did
Petra Martic won 1.1 more points than Ana Bogdan relative to what the serve alone predicted. Ana Bogdan's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −4.3, return execution −3.8, serve 1st execution −0.8.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Petra Martic | Ana Bogdan | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.3 | +0.2 | +1.3 | +1.2 | −0.3 | ±0.0 | −0.8 | −1.1 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.2 | +0.2 | +0.3 | +0.7 | +0.3 | ±0.0 | +1.8 | +2.0 |
| Return | ±0.0 | −0.6 | +2.3 | +1.7 | +0.1 | −0.7 | −3.8 | −4.4 |
| Forehand | +0.2 | +2.7 | +0.1 | +3.0 | ±0.0 | +1.4 | +0.3 | +1.7 |
| Backhand | +0.2 | +1.3 | −0.6 | +0.8 | −0.7 | +0.5 | +3.4 | +3.1 |
| Slice | −0.5 | −5.5 | +1.4 | −4.6 | +0.1 | −4.3 | +5.0 | +0.8 |
| Net | −0.2 | +0.9 | +0.7 | +1.4 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.1 |
| Touch | +0.2 | +1.3 | −2.1 | −0.6 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | +0.5 |
| All shots | −0.3 | +0.5 | +3.4 | +3.6 | −0.6 | −3.2 | +6.3 | +2.6 |
Set by set
| Set | Petra Martic | Ana Bogdan | Net, Petra | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +1.8 | −1.9 | +3.7 | |
| 2 | +0.5 | +3.1 | −2.6 | |
| 3 | +1.4 | +1.4 | ±0.0 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Petra Martic serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 52% 59% | 26% 55% | 21% 89% |
| 2 | 45% 77% | 31% 44% | 24% 57% |
| 3 | 66% 68% | 21% 33% | 14% 50% |
Set to set +0.09 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.54 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Ana Bogdan serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 53% 55% | 21% 38% | 26% 70% |
| 2 | 43% 83% | 29% 38% | 29% 88% |
| 3 | 52% 67% | 28% 50% | 21% 50% |
Set to set +0.02 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.80 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Petra Martic
11.1 points left on the table across 323 shots 3.43 per 100 shots
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×8; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.51 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice down the line ×5; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.44 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×2; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.41 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.33 pts
Ana Bogdan
9.8 points left on the table across 321 shots 3.07 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.59 pts
- Return +1: slice to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×2; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.56 pts
- Long rally, 9+: volley to your middle, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Long rally, 9+: volley to your middle, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×1; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts