RallyIQ

WTA · Right-handed · 10 charted matches · 2019–2024

Ana Bogdan

Archetype: Ad-court slider · Avoids the wide serve

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 56.7% ±3.4 raw 55.1% · tour 56.3% · 767 points
Return points won 45.9% ±3.4 raw 42.9% · tour 43.7% · 786 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice +0.10 ±0.07 better than 72% of WTA · raw +0.10
Shot selection −0.04 ±0.21 better than 43% of WTA · raw −0.03
Execution +0.40 ±0.61 better than 76% of WTA · raw +0.43
Tactical adaptability −0.04 first serves toward what's working, set to set · 10 matches
Adaptation speed ±0.00 same, every two to three service games · per 100 first serves
Points left on the table 2.34 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 83% of WTA

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 4,436 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Ana Bogdan goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 43% to the average player · 313 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 57% 47.9%±5.9 46.7%
FH through the middle 24% 48.7%±8.4 41.3%
FH down the line 14% 38.1%±10.1 44.9%
FH slice through the middle 4% 25.3%±12.8 29.2%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 50% to the average player · 304 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 21% 53.6%±8.9 52.7%
BH crosscourt 21% 43.1%±8.9 50.9%
BH through the middle 20% 52.8%±9.2 46.2%
FH through the middle 16% 41.4%±9.8 45.8%
FH down the line 15% 43.8%±10.1 52.2%
BH down the line 6% 43.3%±13.4 50.0%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 45% to the average player · 219 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 48% 46.0%±7.3 47.6%
BH through the middle 29% 38.9%±8.7 43.3%
BH down the line 12% 45.4%±11.9 46.8%
BH slice through the middle 6% 29.9%±13.1 34.4%
BH slice crosscourt 5% 40.3%±14.7 40.4%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 198 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 56% 40.3%±7.1 47.0%
FH through the middle 19% 52.2%±10.8 41.5%
FH down the line 14% 52.7%±11.9 46.4%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +9 How much less varied Ana Bogdan's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 89 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 42% 30% ▼ 65% / 66%
Body 22% 15% 58% / 57%
T 37% 55% ▲ 73% / 68%

375 normal · 20 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 43% 38% 55% / 66%
Body 21% 12% ▼ 52% / 56%
T 37% 51% ▲ 59% / 64%

301 normal · 69 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. A direction loses 0.19 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage, measured from WTA servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide41% 55.6%±5.9 n=162 41%
Body21% 56.1%±7.6 n=84 6% ▼
T38% 62.4%±6.0 n=149 53% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.27).
Optimal mix: +0.8 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide42% 51.8%±6.1 n=154 55% ▲
Body19% 51.4%±8.2 n=70 4% ▼
T39% 51.5%±6.2 n=146 41% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 1.00).
Optimal mix: +0.4 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.60 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of WTA servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, WTA mixes picked this way win 0.42 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: −0.8±4.0 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (238 repeats, 507 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 71 49% +4.8±8.2
1stAd courtT 73 28% −7.7±7.3
1stAd courtWide 87 37% +2.6±7.3
1stDeuce courtBody 81 44% +1.3±7.7
1stDeuce courtT 67 24% −7.8±7.2
1stDeuce courtWide 117 32% −1.9±6.3
2ndAd courtBody 57 58% +3.0±8.7
2ndAd courtT 24 66% +10.7±10.6
2ndAd courtWide 71 54% ±0.0±8.2
2ndDeuce courtBody 58 49% −5.2±8.8
2ndDeuce courtT 23 56% +0.2±11.2
2ndDeuce courtWide 56 55% +1.0±8.8

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Ana Bogdan's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt used 5.4% · won 57% · −1.3±10.3 vs own baseline
  2. Body serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle used 3.3% · won 55% · −3.5±11.6 vs own baseline
  3. Body serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 5.7% · won 54% · −4.6±10.2 vs own baseline
  4. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 4.8% · won 52% · −6.8±10.7 vs own baseline
  5. T serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt used 5.2% · won 52% · −6.9±10.5 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs body serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 7.5% · won 59% · +8.8±10.9 vs own baseline
  2. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 11.6% · won 56% · +5.5±9.6 vs own baseline
  3. vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt, mid used 6.1% · won 53% · +2.8±11.6 vs own baseline
  4. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH through the middle, mid used 6.9% · won 48% · −2.0±11.3 vs own baseline
  5. vs body serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, mid used 8.4% · won 48% · −2.7±10.7 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. FH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 5.7% · won 56% · +9.6±9.0 vs own baseline
  2. FH crosscourt → FH through the middle used 6.4% · won 55% · +8.0±8.7 vs own baseline
  3. FH through the middle → BH through the middle used 2.3% · won 54% · +7.3±11.7 vs own baseline
  4. FH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 3.6% · won 51% · +4.2±10.5 vs own baseline
  5. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 5.5% · won 50% · +3.3±9.2 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Ana Bogdan wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. FH through the middle → FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 1.3% · won 52% · +6.9±11.0 vs own baseline · +11.4 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Suzan Lamens (2/7), Lesia Tsurenko (5/7)
  2. FH crosscourt → FH through the middle → FH through the middle used 0.7% · won 53% · +7.7±12.7 vs own baseline · +18.9 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Lesia Tsurenko (4/8)
  3. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH through the middle used 1.8% · won 49% · +3.5±9.9 vs own baseline · +8.0 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Suzan Lamens (3/7), Lesia Tsurenko (10/17)
  4. FH crosscourt → FH through the middle → BH crosscourt used 0.6% · won 51% · +5.4±13.0 vs own baseline · +7.6 vs tour on the same sequence
  5. FH down the line → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 0.8% · won 50% · +4.2±12.3 vs own baseline · +6.6 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Lesia Tsurenko (5/9)
  6. FH through the middle → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 0.8% · won 49% · +3.1±12.4 vs own baseline · +6.0 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

FH to the middle · rally+1.6188
BH to the middle · return+1.3173
FH to their backhand · rally+0.6244
BH to their backhand · rally+0.5272
BH to their backhand · return+0.4141

Most exposed to

BH to their backhand · rally−3.4232
FH to the middle · return−2.8143
BH to the middle · return−2.6170
FH to their forehand · rally−1.0373
Wide 1st serve · deuce court−1.0169

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Maja Chwalinska, Sara Sorribes Tormo, Yulia Putintseva, Elsa Jacquemot, Caroline Wozniacki

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the WTA average, in standard deviations.

Avg rally length4.6
Through the middle30%
Drop shots / shot1.8%
Chipped returns13%
T serves · ad39%
T serves · deuce38%
Wide serves · ad42%
Wide serves · deuce41%
Forehand share54%
Serve & volley0%
1st serve in62%
Backhand slice10%
Points at net5%
Unforced errors / shot8.8%
Point-ending shots19.6%
Deep returns28%
Run-around forehands1%
BH down the line13%
FH down the line20%

Plays most like

  1. Elina Svitolina 2013–2026 plan v
  2. Heather Watson 2014–2024 plan v
  3. Emma Raducanu 2018–2026 plan v
  4. Maria Sakkari 2015–2026 plan v
  5. Anna Lena Friedsam 2014–2023 plan v
  6. Johanna Larsson 2013–2019 plan v
  7. Anna Blinkova 2019–2026 plan v
  8. Anna Karolina Schmiedlova 2014–2024 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Elena Dementieva 1999–2010
  2. Anastasia Myskina 2002–2006
  3. Jennifer Capriati 1990–2002

Charted matches