US Open · R128 · Hard · 28 Aug 2023
Stefanos Tsitsipas v Milos Raonic
92–68 in points · Stefanos Tsitsipas won
Why it went the way it did
Stefanos Tsitsipas won 13.2 more points than Milos Raonic relative to what the serve alone predicted. Milos Raonic's biggest leaks: forehand execution −7.1, serve 2nd execution −2.8, return execution −1.7.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Stefanos Tsitsipas | Milos Raonic | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.3 | +0.1 | −1.2 | −0.8 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | −1.6 | −1.4 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.5 | −1.5 | +0.2 | +0.4 | −2.8 | −2.2 |
| Return | −0.4 | −1.0 | ±0.0 | −1.4 | +0.1 | +1.0 | −1.7 | −0.6 |
| Forehand | +0.5 | +2.1 | +3.9 | +6.5 | +0.1 | +3.2 | −7.1 | −3.9 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | +1.0 | +0.8 | +1.8 | −0.1 | +0.1 | −0.3 | −0.3 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −1.0 | +0.6 | −0.3 | +0.2 | −0.9 | −0.7 | −1.4 |
| Net | +0.3 | +0.4 | −0.3 | +0.3 | +0.6 | +0.2 | +0.1 | +0.9 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.1 | −0.7 | +0.1 | −0.2 | −0.1 | −0.2 |
| All shots | +0.8 | +1.1 | +2.2 | +4.0 | +1.3 | +3.8 | −14.2 | −9.2 |
Set by set
| Set | Stefanos Tsitsipas | Milos Raonic | Net, Stefanos | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +1.7 | −3.7 | +5.4 | |
| 2 | +1.8 | −2.5 | +4.3 | |
| 3 | +0.6 | −3.0 | +3.5 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Stefanos Tsitsipas serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 46% 82% | 4% 100% | 50% 58% |
| 2 | 65% 82% | – | 35% 67% |
| 3 | 54% 57% | – | 46% 83% |
Set to set +0.17 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.63 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Milos Raonic serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 52% 33% | – | 48% 64% |
| 2 | 79% 64% | 7% 0% | 14% 75% |
| 3 | 67% 59% | 6% 50% | 27% 56% |
Set to set +0.22 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −2.34 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Stefanos Tsitsipas
5.4 points left on the table across 209 shots 2.58 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH slice through the middle ×6; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.45 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court, server rushing the net hit FH through the middle ×3; FH down the line rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
Milos Raonic
5.3 points left on the table across 230 shots 2.29 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit FH through the middle ×3; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH down the line ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts