RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 200 charted matches · 2016–2026

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Archetype: High-risk · Runs around the backhand

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 69.2% ±2.1 raw 67.3% · tour 63.4% · 16,758 points
Return points won 37.2% ±2.3 raw 33.8% · tour 36.6% · 16,392 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice +0.10 ±0.03 better than 81% of ATP · raw +0.10
Shot selection +0.35 ±0.07 better than 83% of ATP · raw +0.35
Execution +0.20 ±0.17 better than 75% of ATP · raw +0.12
Tactical adaptability −0.01 first serves toward what's working, set to set · 196 matches
Adaptation speed +0.01 same, every two to three service games · per 100 first serves
Long-rally execution +0.03 ±0.37 shot 9 on v own earlier rally shots · 8,145 shots · better than 78% of ATP
Points left on the table 2.52 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 58% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 81,354 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Stefanos Tsitsipas goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 6,469 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 34% 46.2%±1.8 47.6%
BH through the middle 20% 42.7%±2.2 43.7%
FH inside-out 9% 55.2%±3.3 51.8%
BH slice crosscourt 9% 39.5%±3.3 42.5%
BH down the line 8% 46.3%±3.6 46.4%
FH inside-in 7% 57.4%±3.8 54.7%
BH slice through the middle 5% 26.1%±4.0 35.1%
FH through the middle 2% 44.2%±6.1 45.2%

Return +1: drive to your backhand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 3,276 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 34% 46.7%±2.5 46.9%
BH through the middle 24% 42.2%±2.9 43.0%
BH slice crosscourt 11% 38.0%±4.1 40.9%
BH slice through the middle 9% 30.6%±4.3 32.6%
FH inside-out 7% 49.3%±5.2 51.7%
BH down the line 6% 41.3%±5.5 44.2%
FH inside-in 4% 61.0%±6.6 53.6%
FH through the middle 2% 43.6%±9.1 44.4%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 3,248 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 40% 49.3%±2.3 46.6%
FH through the middle 22% 39.4%±3.0 41.5%
FH down the line 21% 42.6%±3.1 44.7%
FH slice through the middle 5% 25.5%±5.5 24.5%
FH slice crosscourt 5% 35.4%±6.0 30.9%
FH down the line + approach 3% 62.0%±7.6 69.3%
FH slice down the line 2% 28.6%±7.9 25.6%
FH lob through the middle 1% 22.6%±11.2 23.0%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 3,209 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 33% 45.9%±2.5 48.0%
BH through the middle 18% 45.1%±3.4 43.8%
BH slice crosscourt 13% 39.8%±3.9 42.1%
BH down the line 11% 45.6%±4.2 46.5%
BH slice through the middle 6% 36.4%±5.5 35.1%
FH inside-in 6% 57.5%±5.7 54.3%
FH inside-out 5% 47.7%±5.9 52.6%
BH slice down the line 2% 35.7%±8.3 35.8%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +1 How much less varied Stefanos Tsitsipas's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 1113 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 47% 56% ▲ 75% / 73%
Body 6% 2% 64% / 63%
T 47% 42% 79% / 75%

8,521 normal · 261 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 50% 52% 78% / 73%
Body 7% 8% 67% / 63%
T 43% 40% 74% / 72%

7,090 normal · 852 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide47% 68.6%±1.2 n=4,122 53% ▲
Body6% 62.1%±3.4 n=520 0% ▼
T47% 68.0%±1.2 n=4,140 47%

Off equilibrium (p = 0.006): serve wide more. Gap 0.6 points per 100 first serves.
Optimal mix: +0.4 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide50% 67.5%±1.2 n=3,993 63% ▲
Body7% 63.8%±3.3 n=549 0% ▼
T43% 66.1%±1.3 n=3,400 37% ▼

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.12).
Optimal mix: +0.4 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.42 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: +0.7±1.4 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (6,180 repeats, 10,144 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 462 36% −1.2±3.6
1stAd courtT 1,781 26% −1.7±1.7
1stAd courtWide 2,727 26% −1.2±1.4
1stDeuce courtBody 633 32% −4.9±3.0
1stDeuce courtT 2,547 25% −0.4±1.4
1stDeuce courtWide 2,360 25% −2.4±1.5
2ndAd courtBody 648 49% −0.1±3.2
2ndAd courtT 326 47% −1.9±4.4
2ndAd courtWide 1,839 44% −4.0±1.9
2ndDeuce courtBody 881 47% −1.6±2.7
2ndDeuce courtT 1,576 49% −0.6±2.1
2ndDeuce courtWide 580 51% +3.3±3.3

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Stefanos Tsitsipas's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Wide serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 2.6% · won 69% · −1.3±3.6 vs own baseline
  2. T serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 2.5% · won 61% · −8.5±3.9 vs own baseline
  3. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 2.4% · won 60% · −10.4±4.0 vs own baseline
  4. T serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 2.8% · won 59% · −11.1±3.7 vs own baseline
  5. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 2.6% · won 56% · −13.5±3.8 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, deep used 2.1% · won 51% · +15.5±4.5 vs own baseline
  2. vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle, deep used 2.0% · won 51% · +15.1±4.6 vs own baseline
  3. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 3.1% · won 44% · +8.3±3.8 vs own baseline
  4. vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle, mid used 2.9% · won 44% · +7.9±3.8 vs own baseline
  5. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, mid used 3.1% · won 43% · +7.4±3.8 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 3.3% · won 54% · +7.5±3.4 vs own baseline
  2. FH down the line → FH crosscourt used 1.1% · won 57% · +10.8±5.5 vs own baseline
  3. BH crosscourt → FH inside-in used 1.4% · won 56% · +9.1±5.0 vs own baseline
  4. FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 2.8% · won 52% · +5.8±3.7 vs own baseline
  5. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 3.2% · won 51% · +4.3±3.4 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Stefanos Tsitsipas wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. FH down the line + approach → BH lob through the middle → Smash crosscourt used 0.2% · won 77% · +27.4±7.4 vs own baseline · −1.9 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Alexander Zverev (7/8), Daniil Medvedev (9/9)
  2. FH down the line + approach → BH through the middle → FH volley crosscourt used 0.2% · won 76% · +26.6±7.4 vs own baseline · +12.2 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Jannik Sinner (6/7)
  3. Wide serve → BH through the middle return, mid → FH crosscourt used 0.3% · won 67% · +18.1±6.0 vs own baseline · +12.0 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Daniil Medvedev (3/7), Lorenzo Musetti (4/8)
  4. FH crosscourt → FH through the middle → FH down the line + approach used 0.2% · won 71% · +21.3±7.5 vs own baseline · +4.8 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Jannik Sinner (6/8)
  5. T serve → BH through the middle return, mid → FH down the line + approach used 0.2% · won 71% · +22.0±7.7 vs own baseline · +4.6 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Daniil Medvedev (5/6)
  6. FH down the line + approach → BH down the line → FH volley crosscourt used 0.2% · won 71% · +22.1±7.8 vs own baseline · +9.9 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

FH volley to their forehand · rally+6.9396
FH volley to the middle · rally+5.4159
BH drop shot to their forehand · rally+4.7196
BH volley to their backhand · rally+3.4201
FH to their backhand · serve +1+3.43,182

Most exposed to

BH drop shot to their forehand · rally−6.8167
BH lob to their backhand · rally−6.2120
FH drop shot to their backhand · rally−4.7156
BH lob to the middle · return +1−2.3140
BH to their forehand · rally−1.81,902

Best-equipped opponents

Active players whose shot mix lines up best against these weaknesses, by structural compatibility per 100 rally shots: Rafael Nadal +1.64, Miomir Kecmanovic +1.51, Jack Draper +1.42, Nishesh Basavareddy +1.35, Roberto Bautista Agut +1.23

Favourable matchups

Miomir Kecmanovic +2.06, Fabian Marozsan +2.05, Pedro Martinez +1.83, Roberto Bautista Agut +1.82, Roberto Carballes Baena +1.81

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Dominic Thiem, Andy Murray, Alexander Zverev, Hubert Hurkacz, Daniil Medvedev

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the ATP average, in standard deviations.

Run-around forehands34%
Forehand share58%
T serves · ad43%
Wide serves · deuce47%
1st serve in63%
T serves · deuce47%
Drop shots / shot1.9%
Deep returns28%
Point-ending shots24.8%
Backhand slice23%
Points at net12%
Wide serves · ad50%
Chipped returns16%
Avg rally length3.9
Unforced errors / shot9.8%
Serve & volley4%
Through the middle24%
FH down the line28%
BH down the line14%

Plays most like

  1. Casper Ruud 2017–2026 plan v
  2. Tallon Griekspoor 2018–2026 plan v
  3. Felix Auger Aliassime 2017–2026 plan v
  4. Zizou Bergs 2021–2026 plan v
  5. Lloyd Harris 2019–2024 plan v
  6. Dominic Thiem 2011–2024 plan v
  7. Alexei Popyrin 2019–2026 plan v
  8. Philipp Kohlschreiber 2008–2019 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Jim Courier 1989–1999
  2. Sebastien Grosjean 1999–2005
  3. Magnus Norman 2000–2001

Charted matches