Antwerp · R16 · Hard · 18 Oct 2023
Gregoire Barrere v Alexander Bublik
43–59 in points · Alexander Bublik won
Why it went the way it did
Alexander Bublik won 7.7 more points than Gregoire Barrere relative to what the serve alone predicted. Gregoire Barrere's biggest leaks: forehand execution −2.3, slice shot selection −1.9, backhand execution −1.8.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Gregoire Barrere | Alexander Bublik | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.2 | −0.1 | −0.2 | −0.1 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | +2.9 | +3.1 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.4 | +1.4 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −0.6 |
| Return | −0.2 | −0.3 | +1.1 | +0.6 | −0.2 | −0.6 | +1.5 | +0.7 |
| Forehand | −0.8 | +0.9 | −2.3 | −2.2 | −0.7 | +0.6 | +2.6 | +2.5 |
| Backhand | −0.3 | −0.8 | −1.8 | −2.9 | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +0.1 | +0.7 |
| Slice | −0.4 | −1.9 | +0.4 | −1.9 | −0.6 | −2.9 | −0.8 | −4.2 |
| Net | −0.4 | +0.6 | −1.3 | −1.2 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | −1.6 | −1.3 |
| Touch | −0.1 | −0.2 | −0.4 | −0.7 | −0.1 | −0.2 | +0.1 | −0.2 |
| All shots | −2.1 | −1.8 | −3.1 | −7.0 | −1.5 | −2.2 | +4.4 | +0.7 |
Set by set
| Set | Gregoire Barrere | Alexander Bublik | Net, Gregoire | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −4.0 | +0.6 | −4.6 | |
| 2 | −3.0 | +0.1 | −3.1 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Gregoire Barrere serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 53% 76% | 3% 0% | 44% 43% |
| 2 | 50% 44% | – | 50% 67% |
Set to set −2.19 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.55 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Alexander Bublik serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50% 79% | – | 50% 71% |
| 2 | 46% 73% | 4% 100% | 50% 67% |
Set to set +0.56 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.42 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Gregoire Barrere
7.2 points left on the table across 165 shots 4.37 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.74 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×2; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.43 pts
- Long rally, 9+: volley to your middle, opponent at net hit FH lob through the middle ×2; FH lob crosscourt rates higher · 0.38 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your middle hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.34 pts
Alexander Bublik
6.4 points left on the table across 176 shots 3.63 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×5; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.37 pts
- Return +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.33 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×4; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts