Australian Open · Q2 · Hard · 11 Jan 2024
John Millman v Alex Molcan
54–68 in points · Alex Molcan won
Why it went the way it did
Alex Molcan won 5.8 more points than John Millman relative to what the serve alone predicted. John Millman's biggest leaks: serve 1st execution −1.7, slice shot selection −0.6, slice execution −0.5.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | John Millman | Alex Molcan | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.3 | −0.1 | −1.7 | −2.1 | −0.7 | −0.1 | −0.4 | −1.2 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.0 | +1.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.0 | −1.0 |
| Return | ±0.0 | +0.7 | −0.5 | +0.2 | +0.3 | −0.2 | +2.1 | +2.3 |
| Forehand | +1.0 | +2.5 | +0.3 | +3.9 | +1.3 | +2.1 | ±0.0 | +3.5 |
| Backhand | +0.1 | +0.9 | +1.2 | +2.2 | +0.2 | +1.2 | +7.3 | +8.6 |
| Slice | −0.2 | −0.6 | −0.5 | −1.4 | −0.2 | −2.1 | +0.2 | −2.0 |
| Net | −0.2 | −0.1 | +1.8 | +1.5 | +0.1 | +0.4 | −0.2 | +0.3 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.2 | −0.5 | ±0.0 | −0.4 | +0.4 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | +0.4 | +2.9 | +1.4 | +4.7 | +1.1 | +0.9 | +8.5 | +10.5 |
Set by set
| Set | John Millman | Alex Molcan | Net, John | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −1.6 | +2.0 | −3.6 | |
| 2 | +6.3 | +8.5 | −2.2 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
John Millman serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 39% 54% | 15% 40% | 45% 80% |
| 2 | 42% 50% | 29% 29% | 29% 14% |
Set to set +0.30 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.56 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Alex Molcan serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 21% 83% | 34% 70% | 45% 77% |
| 2 | 28% 70% | 25% 56% | 47% 35% |
Set to set +0.16 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −1.13 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
John Millman
7.5 points left on the table across 403 shots 1.87 per 100 shots
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×8; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.44 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×11; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.43 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×10; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.42 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.41 pts
Alex Molcan
7.0 points left on the table across 396 shots 1.78 per 100 shots
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×6; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.42 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×9; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.38 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×9; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×9; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts