Australian Open · R128 · Hard · 14 Jan 2024
Coco Gauff v Anna Karolina Schmiedlova
54–21 in points · Coco Gauff won
Why it went the way it did
Coco Gauff won 16.4 more points than Anna Karolina Schmiedlova relative to what the serve alone predicted. Anna Karolina Schmiedlova's biggest leaks: serve 1st execution −1.8, return execution −1.5, slice execution −1.3.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Coco Gauff | Anna Karolina Schmiedlova | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.2 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.8 | −1.7 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.3 |
| Return | +0.1 | +0.3 | +1.5 | +1.9 | −0.1 | −0.2 | −1.5 | −1.7 |
| Forehand | +0.4 | +1.2 | +3.0 | +4.6 | −0.1 | +1.3 | −0.5 | +0.7 |
| Backhand | +0.2 | +0.3 | +4.1 | +4.6 | ±0.0 | +0.8 | −0.7 | ±0.0 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −0.9 | −0.8 | −1.8 | ±0.0 | −1.1 | −1.3 | −2.4 |
| Net | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.5 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| Touch | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | −0.5 | −0.4 |
| All shots | +0.8 | +0.9 | +8.9 | +10.6 | −0.1 | +0.8 | −6.5 | −5.9 |
Set by set
| Set | Coco Gauff | Anna Karolina Schmiedlova | Net, Coco | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +4.4 | −1.8 | +6.1 | |
| 2 | +6.2 | −4.1 | +10.3 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Coco Gauff serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 36% 33% | 32% 63% | 32% 63% |
| 2 | 38% 80% | 23% 100% | 38% 100% |
Within sets +0.20 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Anna Karolina Schmiedlova serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 45% 33% | 10% 0% | 45% 11% |
| 2 | 35% 17% | 29% 0% | 35% 50% |
Within sets −0.05 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Coco Gauff
3.2 points left on the table across 180 shots 1.77 per 100 shots
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH crosscourt ×3; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.17 pts
Anna Karolina Schmiedlova
4.1 points left on the table across 183 shots 2.25 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×9; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.39 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.33 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts