RallyIQ

WTA · Right-handed · 13 charted matches · 2014–2024

Anna Karolina Schmiedlova

Archetype: Ad-court T server · Rallies through the middle

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 57.7% ±3.4 raw 55.4% · tour 56.3% · 790 points
Return points won 46.1% ±3.5 raw 45.3% · tour 43.7% · 792 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice −0.07 ±0.09 better than 40% of WTA · raw −0.07
Shot selection +0.06 ±0.12 better than 53% of WTA · raw +0.06
Execution +0.53 ±0.71 better than 80% of WTA · raw +0.53
Tactical adaptability −0.03 first serves toward what's working, set to set · 13 matches
Adaptation speed −0.04 same, every two to three service games · per 100 first serves
Points left on the table 2.38 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 78% of WTA

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 4,517 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Anna Karolina Schmiedlova goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 45% to the average player · 317 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 49% 54.3%±6.2 47.6%
BH through the middle 28% 46.5%±7.9 43.3%
BH down the line 16% 50.5%±9.7 46.8%
BH slice through the middle 3% 28.7%±13.4 34.4%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 50% to the average player · 304 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH through the middle 22% 51.3%±8.9 45.8%
FH crosscourt 21% 64.5%±8.6 52.7%
FH down the line 19% 53.8%±9.3 52.2%
BH crosscourt 18% 43.7%±9.4 50.9%
BH through the middle 15% 41.3%±10.0 46.2%
BH down the line 5% 47.2%±13.7 50.0%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 43% to the average player · 299 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 50% 44.8%±6.3 46.7%
FH through the middle 30% 41.0%±7.8 41.3%
FH down the line 17% 53.5%±9.7 44.9%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 189 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 50% 59.5%±7.5 47.0%
FH through the middle 25% 55.7%±10.0 41.5%
FH down the line 21% 47.1%±10.6 46.4%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +4 How much less varied Anna Karolina Schmiedlova's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 85 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 36% 39% 67% / 66%
Body 27% 26% 53% / 57%
T 36% 35% 69% / 68%

388 normal · 23 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 23% 24% 61% / 66%
Body 28% 19% ▼ 56% / 56%
T 49% 56% 65% / 64%

315 normal · 62 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. A direction loses 0.19 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage, measured from WTA servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide37% 57.6%±6.1 n=150 37%
Body27% 49.1%±6.9 n=112 12% ▼
T36% 61.1%±6.0 n=149 51% ▲

Off equilibrium (p = 0.039): serve T more. Gap 4.6 points per 100 first serves.
Optimal mix: +1.0 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide24% 50.2%±7.5 n=89 24%
Body26% 53.5%±7.2 n=99 11% ▼
T50% 57.2%±5.5 n=189 65% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.33).
Optimal mix: +0.5 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.79 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of WTA servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, WTA mixes picked this way win 0.42 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: +1.4±7.7 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (279 repeats, 483 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 82 47% +2.7±7.8
1stAd courtT 96 39% +3.9±7.2
1stAd courtWide 49 30% −4.9±8.4
1stDeuce courtBody 70 44% +1.2±8.2
1stDeuce courtT 91 27% −5.2±6.6
1stDeuce courtWide 91 32% −2.4±7.0
2ndAd courtBody 84 61% +5.9±7.5
2ndAd courtT 33 53% −1.8±10.3
2ndAd courtWide 36 52% −1.9±10.1
2ndDeuce courtBody 95 59% +4.2±7.2
2ndDeuce courtT 37 67% +10.9±9.5
2ndDeuce courtWide 26 50% −3.5±11.0

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Anna Karolina Schmiedlova's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. T serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 4.5% · won 62% · +2.4±10.5 vs own baseline
  2. T serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt used 5.4% · won 61% · +1.3±10.0 vs own baseline
  3. T serve (deuce court) → BH crosscourt used 3.3% · won 60% · +1.1±11.3 vs own baseline
  4. Body serve (deuce court) → BH crosscourt used 5.3% · won 60% · +0.7±10.1 vs own baseline
  5. Wide serve (deuce court) → BH crosscourt used 4.0% · won 60% · +0.3±10.9 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs body serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt used 6.2% · won 50% · +1.6±11.4 vs own baseline
  2. vs T serve (ad court) → FH through the middle, mid used 5.4% · won 49% · +0.6±11.8 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. BH down the line → FH crosscourt used 2.3% · won 67% · +13.4±10.6 vs own baseline
  2. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 5.8% · won 59% · +5.5±8.3 vs own baseline
  3. FH down the line → FH crosscourt used 2.7% · won 61% · +7.8±10.5 vs own baseline
  4. BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 5.6% · won 58% · +4.6±8.4 vs own baseline
  5. FH crosscourt → FH through the middle used 3.8% · won 58% · +4.6±9.6 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Anna Karolina Schmiedlova wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 3.6% · won 58% · +7.0±7.6 vs own baseline · +11.2 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Garbine Muguruza (2/7), Ekaterina Reyngold (3/7)
  2. FH through the middle → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 0.8% · won 59% · +8.5±12.1 vs own baseline · +23.4 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Katerina Siniakova (4/7)
  3. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH through the middle used 1.7% · won 56% · +5.7±10.1 vs own baseline · +16.8 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Katerina Siniakova (7/8)
  4. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → BH down the line used 1.7% · won 56% · +4.8±10.0 vs own baseline · +10.5 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Marie Bouzkova (4/9), Garbine Muguruza (4/6)
  5. FH down the line → BH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 0.8% · won 56% · +5.3±12.3 vs own baseline · +6.1 vs tour on the same sequence
  6. FH crosscourt → FH through the middle → FH through the middle used 0.6% · won 57% · +6.0±12.9 vs own baseline · +20.9 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

BH to the middle · rally+2.6201
FH to the middle · rally+2.2240
BH to their forehand · rally+2.1131
BH to their backhand · return+1.8150
FH to their forehand · rally+1.7401

Most exposed to

BH to their backhand · rally−1.9321
FH to the middle · return−1.9162
BH to their backhand · return−1.0126
FH to their backhand · rally−1.0224
BH to the middle · return−0.7153

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Maja Chwalinska, Sara Sorribes Tormo, Yulia Putintseva, Elsa Jacquemot, Caroline Wozniacki

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the WTA average, in standard deviations.

T serves · ad50%
Avg rally length4.7
1st serve in64%
Through the middle30%
Deep returns34%
T serves · deuce36%
Serve & volley0%
Chipped returns7%
Backhand slice7%
Wide serves · deuce36%
Run-around forehands3%
Forehand share51%
Drop shots / shot0.6%
BH down the line16%
Points at net3%
Point-ending shots17.8%
Unforced errors / shot7.1%
FH down the line21%
Wide serves · ad24%

Plays most like

  1. Elisabetta Cocciaretto 2019–2026 plan v
  2. Marion Bartoli 2003–2013 plan v
  3. Qiang Wang 2012–2024 plan v
  4. Jessica Pegula 2015–2026 plan v
  5. Ana Bogdan 2019–2024 plan v
  6. Caroline Wozniacki 2008–2024 plan v
  7. Carla Suarez Navarro 2009–2021 plan v
  8. Elina Svitolina 2013–2026 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Jennifer Capriati 1990–2002
  2. Anastasia Myskina 2002–2006
  3. Monica Seles 1990–2003

Charted matches