Australian Open · R128 · Hard · 16 Jan 2024
Tommy Paul v Gregoire Barrere
87–56 in points · Tommy Paul won
Why it went the way it did
Tommy Paul won 16.0 more points than Gregoire Barrere relative to what the serve alone predicted. Gregoire Barrere's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −3.2, net execution −1.9, backhand execution −1.8.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Tommy Paul | Gregoire Barrere | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.2 | ±0.0 | +5.1 | +5.3 | +0.2 | −0.1 | +3.1 | +3.2 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +1.3 | +1.4 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.4 |
| Return | −0.1 | +0.5 | +5.4 | +5.7 | −0.3 | −0.1 | +0.6 | +0.2 |
| Forehand | +0.3 | +1.8 | +4.0 | +6.1 | +0.3 | +1.4 | +4.5 | +6.2 |
| Backhand | −0.1 | +0.2 | +3.3 | +3.4 | +0.1 | +0.1 | −1.8 | −1.6 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −2.6 | −0.3 | −3.0 | −0.1 | −3.2 | −1.8 | −5.0 |
| Net | −0.1 | −0.2 | −0.7 | −1.0 | +0.1 | +0.2 | −1.9 | −1.7 |
| Touch | +0.1 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.2 | +0.4 | +0.2 |
| All shots | +0.1 | −0.4 | +18.0 | +17.7 | +0.2 | −2.0 | +3.5 | +1.8 |
Set by set
| Set | Tommy Paul | Gregoire Barrere | Net, Tommy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +7.1 | +0.9 | +6.2 | |
| 2 | +5.5 | +1.7 | +3.8 | |
| 3 | +5.1 | −0.8 | +5.9 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Tommy Paul serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 63% 83% | 5% 100% | 32% 83% |
| 2 | 47% 67% | 6% 0% | 47% 87% |
| 3 | 42% 88% | – | 58% 82% |
Set to set +1.72 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.76 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Gregoire Barrere serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 63% 53% | – | 38% 56% |
| 2 | 42% 60% | 8% 100% | 50% 50% |
| 3 | 44% 64% | – | 56% 50% |
Set to set −2.58 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −1.16 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Tommy Paul
5.2 points left on the table across 220 shots 2.35 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.18 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your backhand side, opponent at net, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley down the line rates higher · 0.18 pts
Gregoire Barrere
5.5 points left on the table across 220 shots 2.52 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×8; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.31 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your backhand side, you at net hit Smash through the middle ×1; Smash inside-in rates higher · 0.21 pts