Punta del Este CH · R32 · Clay · 21 Jan 2024
Alvaro Guillen Meza v Tomas Barrios Vera
111–107 in points · Alvaro Guillen Meza won
Why it went the way it did
Alvaro Guillen Meza won 2.0 more points than Tomas Barrios Vera relative to what the serve alone predicted. Tomas Barrios Vera's biggest leaks: return execution −3.2, forehand execution −3.0, slice shot selection −2.2.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Alvaro Guillen Meza | Tomas Barrios Vera | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.3 | −0.3 | −2.5 | −2.4 | +0.4 | −0.2 | −0.5 | −0.3 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.3 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.3 |
| Return | −0.3 | +1.1 | +0.9 | +1.7 | +0.3 | +1.6 | −3.2 | −1.3 |
| Forehand | +0.5 | +3.3 | −2.9 | +0.9 | +0.8 | +3.4 | −3.0 | +1.2 |
| Backhand | −0.4 | −0.1 | +5.7 | +5.3 | +0.1 | −0.4 | +2.4 | +2.0 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −4.3 | −0.6 | −4.8 | +0.1 | −2.2 | −0.7 | −2.8 |
| Net | +0.4 | +0.1 | −0.4 | +0.1 | +0.2 | +0.6 | −1.2 | −0.5 |
| Touch | +0.4 | −1.3 | −0.1 | −1.0 | +0.1 | −0.2 | −0.6 | −0.6 |
| Other | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −0.2 | −0.6 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | +1.1 | −1.8 | ±0.0 | −0.7 | +1.9 | +2.6 | −7.2 | −2.7 |
Set by set
| Set | Alvaro Guillen Meza | Tomas Barrios Vera | Net, Alvaro | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −0.1 | −3.3 | +3.3 | |
| 2 | −2.4 | +1.1 | −3.5 | |
| 3 | +1.8 | −0.4 | +2.2 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Alvaro Guillen Meza serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 46% 54% | – | 54% 73% |
| 2 | 46% 50% | 3% 0% | 51% 44% |
| 3 | 48% 68% | 2% 100% | 50% 65% |
Set to set −0.45 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.21 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Tomas Barrios Vera serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 41% 44% | – | 59% 54% |
| 2 | 52% 63% | – | 48% 47% |
| 3 | 50% 64% | – | 50% 61% |
Set to set −0.45 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.63 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Alvaro Guillen Meza
9.9 points left on the table across 353 shots 2.81 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×6; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.98 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH crosscourt ×4; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.78 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH down the line ×3; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.55 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×5; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.40 pts
Tomas Barrios Vera
8.3 points left on the table across 370 shots 2.24 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH crosscourt ×3; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.59 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×13; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.50 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle ×10; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.39 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH down the line ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.37 pts