Indian Wells · R128 · Hard · 7 Mar 2024
Cristina Bucsa v Caroline Dolehide
37–61 in points · Caroline Dolehide won
Why it went the way it did
Caroline Dolehide won 12.6 more points than Cristina Bucsa relative to what the serve alone predicted. Cristina Bucsa's biggest leaks: forehand execution −4.7, backhand execution −4.3, return execution −4.0.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Cristina Bucsa | Caroline Dolehide | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.2 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.3 | −0.9 | ±0.0 | +1.1 | +0.1 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.9 | −1.9 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.1 |
| Return | −0.1 | +0.2 | −4.0 | −3.8 | +0.2 | −0.1 | +1.2 | +1.3 |
| Forehand | −0.1 | +0.9 | −4.7 | −4.0 | ±0.0 | +0.6 | −0.9 | −0.4 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | +0.1 | −4.3 | −4.2 | −0.2 | +0.1 | +0.9 | +0.8 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −0.3 | −0.3 | −0.7 | ±0.0 | −2.6 | +0.2 | −2.4 |
| Net | −0.4 | +0.3 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.1 | +0.2 | −0.5 | −0.3 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.4 | +0.5 | ±0.0 | −0.8 | −0.1 | −0.9 |
| All shots | −0.9 | +1.3 | −14.9 | −14.5 | −1.1 | −2.6 | +1.8 | −1.9 |
Set by set
| Set | Cristina Bucsa | Caroline Dolehide | Net, Cristina | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −6.5 | −1.8 | −4.7 | |
| 2 | −8.0 | −0.1 | −7.9 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Cristina Bucsa serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 40% 50% | 32% 38% | 28% 29% |
| 2 | 54% 47% | 21% 33% | 25% 29% |
Within sets +0.63 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Caroline Dolehide serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38% 64% | 55% 56% | 7% 50% |
| 2 | 13% 100% | 88% 71% | – |
Set to set −3.87 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −2.49 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Cristina Bucsa
4.4 points left on the table across 148 shots 2.97 per 100 shots
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley down the line rates higher · 0.30 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley down the line rates higher · 0.30 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Return +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH down the line rates higher · 0.19 pts
Caroline Dolehide
3.6 points left on the table across 133 shots 2.68 per 100 shots
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×3; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts