RallyIQ

WTA · Right-handed · 13 charted matches · 2022–2025

Caroline Dolehide

Archetype: Runs around the backhand · Forehand-dominant

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 59.0% ±3.6 raw 59.6% · tour 56.3% · 891 points
Return points won 45.4% ±3.6 raw 43.8% · tour 43.7% · 907 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice −0.27 ±0.08 better than 10% of WTA · raw −0.25
Shot selection −0.67 ±0.37 better than 7% of WTA · raw −0.65
Execution −0.35 ±0.61 better than 40% of WTA · raw −0.17
Tactical adaptability +0.18 first serves toward what's working, set to set · 12 matches
Adaptation speed +0.10 same, every two to three service games · per 100 first serves
Points left on the table 3.14 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 6% of WTA

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 3,981 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Caroline Dolehide goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 50% to the average player · 225 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 32% 49.5%±8.6 52.7%
FH through the middle 26% 42.0%±9.1 45.8%
FH down the line 17% 43.1%±10.6 52.2%
BH through the middle 10% 48.2%±12.7 46.2%
BH crosscourt 7% 52.0%±13.9 50.9%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 45% to the average player · 217 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH slice through the middle 21% 40.7%±9.9 34.4%
BH crosscourt 20% 45.3%±10.3 47.6%
BH through the middle 18% 37.3%±10.4 43.3%
BH slice crosscourt 17% 48.4%±11.0 40.4%
BH down the line 6% 48.1%±14.1 46.8%
FH inside-out 6% 48.5%±14.5 52.5%
FH through the middle 5% 40.0%±14.7 45.1%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 43% to the average player · 141 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 38% 34.7%±9.2 46.7%
FH through the middle 32% 45.0%±10.2 41.3%
FH down the line 12% 43.2%±13.4 44.9%
FH slice through the middle 12% 37.4%±13.1 29.2%

Return +1: drive to your middle

position worth 50% to the average player · 125 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 29% 50.8%±11.0 52.3%
FH through the middle 29% 47.0%±11.0 46.5%
BH through the middle 11% 59.5%±13.8 46.2%
BH slice through the middle 8% 53.9%±15.0 45.9%
FH down the line 8% 45.3%±15.0 53.0%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +2 How much less varied Caroline Dolehide's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 97 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 52% 55% 68% / 66%
Body 22% 32% ▲ 66% / 57%
T 27% 14% ▼ 65% / 68%

433 normal · 22 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 48% 51% 65% / 66%
Body 25% 25% 63% / 56%
T 27% 24% 66% / 64%

350 normal · 75 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. A direction loses 0.19 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage, measured from WTA servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide52% 60.4%±4.9 n=236 67% ▲
Body22% 59.5%±7.1 n=101 7% ▼
T26% 58.1%±6.7 n=118 26%

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.86).
Optimal mix: +0.3 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide49% 60.0%±5.2 n=207 53% ▲
Body25% 57.7%±6.9 n=107 10% ▼
T26% 62.2%±6.7 n=111 37% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.67).
Optimal mix: +0.5 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.41 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of WTA servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, WTA mixes picked this way win 0.42 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: +0.8±6.1 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (351 repeats, 503 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 64 40% −4.4±8.3
1stAd courtT 88 30% −5.3±7.0
1stAd courtWide 110 35% +0.1±6.6
1stDeuce courtBody 70 39% −3.8±8.0
1stDeuce courtT 100 37% +4.5±7.0
1stDeuce courtWide 122 33% −1.0±6.3
2ndAd courtBody 68 64% +8.7±8.0
2ndAd courtT 37 52% −3.5±10.0
2ndAd courtWide 66 52% −1.4±8.4
2ndDeuce courtBody 90 57% +2.5±7.4
2ndDeuce courtT 55 60% +3.8±8.7
2ndDeuce courtWide 37 57% +3.1±10.0

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Caroline Dolehide's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Wide serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 3.8% · won 72% · +5.8±10.1 vs own baseline
  2. Body serve (ad court) → FH through the middle used 3.9% · won 62% · −4.6±10.8 vs own baseline
  3. Wide serve (ad court) → FH through the middle used 3.6% · won 56% · −9.8±11.2 vs own baseline
  4. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 3.5% · won 55% · −10.7±11.4 vs own baseline
  5. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 6.9% · won 57% · −9.6±9.3 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, mid used 6.6% · won 58% · +8.5±11.0 vs own baseline
  2. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH through the middle, mid used 6.3% · won 55% · +5.9±11.2 vs own baseline
  3. vs body serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, deep used 6.8% · won 53% · +3.9±11.0 vs own baseline
  4. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH through the middle, deep used 5.5% · won 51% · +1.3±11.6 vs own baseline
  5. vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle, deep used 6.3% · won 50% · +0.4±11.3 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 8.3% · won 44% · −0.3±11.1 vs own baseline
  2. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 11.0% · won 42% · −2.8±10.1 vs own baseline
  3. FH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 10.3% · won 38% · −6.3±10.2 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Caroline Dolehide wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH through the middle used 0.9% · won 48% · +3.0±13.0 vs own baseline · +10.1 vs tour on the same sequence
  2. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 1.1% · won 42% · −3.7±12.3 vs own baseline · −11.4 vs tour on the same sequence
  3. FH through the middle → FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 0.9% · won 40% · −5.5±12.6 vs own baseline · −15.5 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

Wide 1st serve · ad court+3.2207
FH to their forehand · serve +1+2.6136
Wide 1st serve · deuce court+1.2236
BH to the middle · return+1.1201
FH to their forehand · rally−1.1209

Most exposed to

T 1st serve · ad court−0.4136
Wide 1st serve · ad court+0.1204
Wide 1st serve · deuce court+0.3185
T 1st serve · deuce court+0.5181
BH to the middle · return+0.6174

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Elena Rybakina, Serena Williams, Rebecca Marino, Madison Keys, Karolina Pliskova

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the WTA average, in standard deviations.

Run-around forehands27%
1st serve in73%
Forehand share62%
Backhand slice43%
Wide serves · deuce52%
Through the middle36%
Deep returns38%
Wide serves · ad49%
Chipped returns18%
Unforced errors / shot11.5%
Point-ending shots26.0%
Serve & volley1%
Points at net6%
BH down the line18%
Drop shots / shot0.5%
Avg rally length3.5
T serves · ad26%
T serves · deuce26%
FH down the line20%

Plays most like

  1. Tamara Zidansek 2019–2026 plan v
  2. Rebecca Peterson 2020–2023 plan v
  3. Daria Saville 2015–2024 plan v
  4. Nao Hibino 2016–2025 plan v
  5. Bianca Andreescu 2017–2026 plan v
  6. Xin Yu Wang 2019–2026 plan v
  7. Peyton Stearns 2022–2026 plan v
  8. Emma Raducanu 2018–2026 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Elena Dementieva 1999–2010
  2. Daniela Hantuchova 2002–2015
  3. Marion Bartoli 2003–2013

Charted matches