Indian Wells Masters · R32 · Hard · 11 Mar 2024
Novak Djokovic v Luca Nardi
93–92 in points · Luca Nardi won
Why it went the way it did
Luca Nardi won 0.3 more points than Novak Djokovic relative to what the serve alone predicted. Novak Djokovic's biggest leaks: serve 1st execution −3.2, slice shot selection −1.5, slice execution −1.1.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Novak Djokovic | Luca Nardi | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.2 | +0.2 | −3.2 | −3.2 | −1.1 | −0.2 | −0.1 | −1.4 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | −0.1 | +1.1 | +1.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −2.8 | −2.8 |
| Return | +0.3 | +0.8 | −1.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | −0.7 | −4.9 | −5.5 |
| Forehand | −0.1 | +1.1 | +0.9 | +1.9 | +0.6 | +2.2 | +4.6 | +7.5 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +2.2 | +2.5 | +0.2 | +0.8 | +2.0 | +3.0 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −1.5 | −1.1 | −2.5 | +0.4 | −3.4 | +1.5 | −1.4 |
| Net | −0.3 | +0.3 | +1.6 | +1.6 | +0.4 | +0.9 | +0.7 | +2.0 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.7 | +0.7 | +0.1 | +0.2 | +0.7 | +0.9 |
| All shots | −0.3 | +1.1 | +1.2 | +2.1 | +0.7 | −0.1 | +1.8 | +2.3 |
Set by set
| Set | Novak Djokovic | Luca Nardi | Net, Novak | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −1.6 | −0.5 | −1.1 | |
| 2 | +3.1 | −2.2 | +5.4 | |
| 3 | +0.5 | +5.1 | −4.6 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Novak Djokovic serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 47% 79% | 17% 20% | 37% 64% |
| 2 | 35% 75% | 21% 71% | 44% 60% |
| 3 | 52% 69% | 6% 100% | 42% 38% |
Set to set +1.03 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.68 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Luca Nardi serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 33% 73% | 39% 62% | 27% 67% |
| 2 | 43% 31% | 33% 60% | 23% 71% |
| 3 | 52% 71% | 26% 57% | 22% 100% |
Set to set −1.44 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −1.29 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Novak Djokovic
7.9 points left on the table across 391 shots 2.02 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×2; BH down the line rates higher · 0.41 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×8; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.41 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×8; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.33 pts
Luca Nardi
7.8 points left on the table across 406 shots 1.92 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×13; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.50 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×5; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.46 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×8; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.41 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court, server rushing the net hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.31 pts