Szekesfehervar CH · R32 · Clay · 12 Mar 2024
Peter Fajta v Jozef Kovalik
34–54 in points · Jozef Kovalik won
Why it went the way it did
Jozef Kovalik won 10.7 more points than Peter Fajta relative to what the serve alone predicted. Peter Fajta's biggest leaks: forehand execution −2.2, slice shot selection −1.8, slice execution −1.7.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Peter Fajta | Jozef Kovalik | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +0.9 | +0.8 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +0.8 | +0.7 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −0.4 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | ±0.0 |
| Return | −0.2 | −0.7 | +1.6 | +0.7 | −0.3 | ±0.0 | +1.8 | +1.5 |
| Forehand | −0.4 | +0.7 | −2.2 | −1.8 | +0.1 | +0.9 | +1.7 | +2.7 |
| Backhand | −0.3 | −0.3 | +0.7 | +0.1 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.3 |
| Slice | −0.4 | −1.8 | −1.7 | −3.9 | −0.1 | −1.6 | −0.2 | −1.9 |
| Net | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.5 | +0.6 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +1.0 | +1.4 |
| Touch | +0.1 | +0.1 | −1.1 | −1.0 | +0.2 | −0.2 | +1.2 | +1.1 |
| All shots | −1.1 | −2.0 | −1.9 | −4.9 | −0.1 | −0.7 | +6.6 | +5.8 |
Set by set
| Set | Peter Fajta | Jozef Kovalik | Net, Peter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −2.8 | +2.3 | −5.1 | |
| 2 | −2.1 | +3.4 | −5.6 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Peter Fajta serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 63% 50% | 5% 0% | 32% 67% |
| 2 | 54% 40% | 14% 100% | 32% 67% |
Within sets +2.53 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Jozef Kovalik serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 36% 63% | 14% 67% | 50% 91% |
| 2 | 26% 80% | 5% 100% | 68% 85% |
Within sets +2.54 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Peter Fajta
5.3 points left on the table across 132 shots 3.98 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×3; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.49 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×5; BH down the line rates higher · 0.45 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.37 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court, server rushing the net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH down the line rates higher · 0.36 pts
Jozef Kovalik
4.3 points left on the table across 138 shots 3.13 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit FH down the line ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.34 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×3; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts