RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 5 charted matches · 2018–2024

Jozef Kovalik

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 61.2% ±4.0 raw 61.1% · tour 63.4% · 316 points
Return points won 33.5% ±3.9 raw 31.7% · tour 36.6% · 300 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Shot expected value

The share of points Jozef Kovalik goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 72 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 33% 44.4%±12.3 47.6%
BH slice crosscourt 19% 42.6%±14.0 42.5%
BH down the line 15% 49.3%±14.8 46.4%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 54 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH down the line 33% 50.8%±13.3 51.5%
FH crosscourt 30% 54.3%±13.7 52.7%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 45 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH through the middle 36% 34.2%±13.0 41.5%
FH crosscourt 33% 55.2%±13.8 46.6%
FH down the line 31% 49.8%±14.1 44.7%

Serve under pressure

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 36% 17% ▼ 62% / 73%
Body 5% 0% 65% / 63%
T 58% 83% ▲ 74% / 75%

154 normal · 6 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 40% 35% 79% / 73%
Body 9% 10% 66% / 63%
T 51% 55% 63% / 72%

129 normal · 20 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints won
Wide36% 52.5%±8.8 n=57
Body5% 66.2%±12.6 n=8
T59% 68.3%±6.8 n=95

Off equilibrium (p = 0.003): serve T more. Gap 5.6 points per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints won
Wide40% 66.0%±8.3 n=59
Body9% 57.5%±12.4 n=13
T52% 55.5%±7.9 n=77

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.12).

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: ±0.0±6.6 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (144 repeats, 155 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 12 34% −3.4±12.0
1stAd courtT 27 24% −4.5±9.2
1stAd courtWide 43 26% −1.0±8.5
1stDeuce courtBody 10 33% −4.2±12.2
1stDeuce courtT 40 24% −1.5±8.3
1stDeuce courtWide 48 28% +1.2±8.4
2ndAd courtBody 20 46% −3.8±11.6
2ndAd courtT 5 45% −4.2±13.8
2ndAd courtWide 32 46% −2.4±10.4
2ndDeuce courtBody 22 44% −5.4±11.3
2ndDeuce courtT 27 47% −2.5±10.9
2ndDeuce courtWide 11 55% +6.6±12.8

Charted matches