Miami Masters · Q1 · Hard · 18 Mar 2024
Patrick Kypson v Aleksandar Kovacevic
59–72 in points · Aleksandar Kovacevic won
Why it went the way it did
Aleksandar Kovacevic won 6.6 more points than Patrick Kypson relative to what the serve alone predicted. Patrick Kypson's biggest leaks: backhand execution −1.9, return execution −1.6, net execution −1.5.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Patrick Kypson | Aleksandar Kovacevic | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.6 | −0.1 | +0.3 | −0.4 | −0.1 | −0.1 | +0.9 | +0.6 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.9 | +1.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.1 | −1.1 |
| Return | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −1.6 | −2.0 | −0.4 | −0.8 | −1.0 | −2.2 |
| Forehand | −0.7 | +1.4 | −0.6 | +0.2 | −0.9 | +1.2 | −0.7 | −0.4 |
| Backhand | −0.3 | +0.3 | −1.9 | −1.9 | −0.1 | +0.4 | +1.9 | +2.2 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −1.4 | −1.3 | −2.6 | +0.1 | −1.5 | +0.7 | −0.7 |
| Net | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.5 | −1.5 | +0.1 | +0.2 | +0.4 | +0.7 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | +0.1 | −0.5 | −0.3 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +0.2 | +0.1 |
| All shots | −1.3 | −0.2 | −6.1 | −7.5 | −1.4 | −0.8 | +1.4 | −0.9 |
Set by set
| Set | Patrick Kypson | Aleksandar Kovacevic | Net, Patrick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −2.2 | +0.6 | −2.8 | |
| 2 | −5.3 | −1.5 | −3.8 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Patrick Kypson serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50% 64% | 23% 60% | 27% 33% |
| 2 | 50% 64% | 27% 67% | 23% 60% |
Within sets −0.92 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Aleksandar Kovacevic serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 37% 64% | 3% 100% | 60% 67% |
| 2 | 37% 77% | 20% 71% | 43% 73% |
Set to set +0.13 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.43 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Patrick Kypson
4.8 points left on the table across 209 shots 2.30 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×9; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Return +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle + approach ×1; FH down the line + approach rates higher · 0.20 pts
Aleksandar Kovacevic
6.1 points left on the table across 210 shots 2.91 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.34 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH slice through the middle ×3; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts