Miami · R128 · Hard · 19 Mar 2024
Brenda Fruhvirtova v Maria Lourdes Carle
63–48 in points · Brenda Fruhvirtova won
Why it went the way it did
Brenda Fruhvirtova won 7.6 more points than Maria Lourdes Carle relative to what the serve alone predicted. Maria Lourdes Carle's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −7.8, forehand execution −2.8, serve 2nd execution −1.2.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Brenda Fruhvirtova | Maria Lourdes Carle | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.2 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | −0.2 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.9 | −1.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.2 | −1.2 |
| Return | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +2.7 | +2.7 | −0.6 | +0.6 | +1.2 | +1.2 |
| Forehand | +0.5 | +1.1 | +2.5 | +4.1 | +0.1 | +2.2 | −2.8 | −0.5 |
| Backhand | +0.7 | +1.0 | −1.0 | +0.7 | −0.3 | +0.6 | ±0.0 | +0.4 |
| Slice | −0.2 | −1.4 | +0.2 | −1.4 | +0.5 | −7.8 | +3.5 | −3.8 |
| Net | +0.2 | +0.3 | −0.5 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | ±0.0 | −1.2 | −1.5 |
| Touch | −0.1 | −1.4 | ±0.0 | −1.5 | +0.1 | +0.3 | +1.3 | +1.7 |
| All shots | +1.3 | −0.4 | +2.8 | +3.7 | −1.1 | −4.1 | +1.2 | −3.9 |
Set by set
| Set | Brenda Fruhvirtova | Maria Lourdes Carle | Net, Brenda | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +0.5 | −1.8 | +2.3 | |
| 2 | +3.2 | −2.2 | +5.3 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Brenda Fruhvirtova serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 58% 63% | 9% 67% | 33% 55% |
| 2 | 55% 67% | 14% 67% | 32% 29% |
Set to set +0.03 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.59 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Maria Lourdes Carle serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 39% 44% | 39% 33% | 22% 100% |
| 2 | 27% 11% | 48% 44% | 24% 63% |
Within sets +4.58 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Brenda Fruhvirtova
5.8 points left on the table across 300 shots 1.94 per 100 shots
- Long rally, 9+: slice to your backhand side hit BH crosscourt ×12; BH down the line rates higher · 0.32 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Return +1: slice to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×2; BH down the line rates higher · 0.25 pts
Maria Lourdes Carle
8.9 points left on the table across 313 shots 2.84 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×10; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.54 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH down the line ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.48 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.44 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice down the line ×5; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.44 pts