WTA · Right-handed · 3 charted matches · 2021–2024
Maria Lourdes Carle
Shot expected value
The share of points Maria Lourdes Carle goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.
Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side
position worth 45% to the average player · 101 shots
| Option | Used | Win % | Tour |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH slice crosscourt | 24% | 54.7%±12.3 | 40.4% |
| BH through the middle | 20% | 44.2%±12.9 | 43.3% |
| BH slice through the middle | 16% | 41.3%±13.5 | 34.4% |
| BH crosscourt | 12% | 51.6%±14.5 | 47.6% |
| BH slice down the line | 10% | 37.8%±14.6 | 31.7% |
| FH inside-out | 10% | 61.7%±14.6 | 52.5% |
Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side
position worth 43% to the average player · 77 shots
| Option | Used | Win % | Tour |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH crosscourt | 44% | 46.9%±11.2 | 46.7% |
| FH through the middle | 29% | 38.7%±12.4 | 41.3% |
| FH down the line | 18% | 44.0%±14.0 | 44.9% |
Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side
position worth 44% to the average player · 45 shots
| Option | Used | Win % | Tour |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH slice crosscourt | 36% | 35.4%±13.1 | 38.7% |
| BH down the line | 22% | 54.5%±15.0 | 46.7% |
Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side
position worth 44% to the average player · 39 shots
| Option | Used | Win % | Tour |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH crosscourt | 46% | 43.1%±13.2 | 47.0% |
| FH down the line | 33% | 52.4%±14.3 | 46.4% |
Serve under pressure
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Usage | Break pt | Won when in |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 48% | 33% ▼ | 59% / 66% |
| Body | 47% | 56% ▲ | 64% / 57% |
| T | 6% | 11% | 66% / 68% |
103 normal · 9 break-point 1st serves
Ad court
| 1st serve | Usage | Break pt | Won when in |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 38% | 50% ▲ | 67% / 66% |
| Body | 30% | 25% | 53% / 56% |
| T | 32% | 25% | 71% / 64% |
76 normal · 24 break-point 1st serves
Is the serve mix in equilibrium?
Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. A direction loses 0.19 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage, measured from WTA servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Usage | Points won |
|---|---|---|
| Wide | 46% | 47.1%±9.1 n=52 |
| Body | 47% | 60.3%±8.8 n=53 |
| T | 6% | 57.5%±13.4 n=7 |
Off equilibrium (p = 0.016): serve body more. Gap 6.1 points per 100 first serves.
Ad court
| 1st serve | Usage | Points won |
|---|---|---|
| Wide | 41% | 56.4%±9.7 n=41 |
| Body | 29% | 49.6%±10.7 n=29 |
| T | 30% | 55.5%±10.6 n=30 |
Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.51).
Return by serve direction
Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.
| Serve | Court | Direction | Points | Won | vs tour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | Ad court | Body | 5 | 46% | +2.3±13.9 | |
| 1st | Ad court | T | 13 | 41% | +5.5±12.3 | |
| 1st | Ad court | Wide | 37 | 39% | +4.9±9.8 | |
| 1st | Deuce court | Body | 11 | 51% | +8.1±12.8 | |
| 1st | Deuce court | T | 25 | 41% | +9.0±10.9 | |
| 1st | Deuce court | Wide | 24 | 30% | −4.0±10.3 | |
| 2nd | Ad court | Body | 11 | 52% | −2.6±12.8 | |
| 2nd | Ad court | T | 3 | 59% | +4.1±14.1 | |
| 2nd | Ad court | Wide | 18 | 52% | −1.3±11.9 | |
| 2nd | Deuce court | Body | 11 | 52% | −2.4±12.8 | |
| 2nd | Deuce court | T | 14 | 61% | +4.9±12.1 | |
| 2nd | Deuce court | Wide | 8 | 61% | +7.1±13.0 |
Signature patterns
Recurring sequences that win more than Maria Lourdes Carle's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.
Serve → +1
- Not enough data
Return
- Not enough data
Rally, consecutive own shots
- FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 43.5% · won 53% · +1.1±11.2 vs own baseline