Miami Masters · R128 · Hard · 20 Mar 2024
Max Purcell v Marton Fucsovics
31–55 in points · Marton Fucsovics won
Why it went the way it did
Marton Fucsovics won 13.5 more points than Max Purcell relative to what the serve alone predicted. Max Purcell's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −3.8, forehand execution −2.9, net execution −1.4.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Max Purcell | Marton Fucsovics | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | +0.2 | +0.2 | +0.5 | +0.1 | −0.1 | +1.4 | +1.4 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | +0.5 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.9 | +1.0 |
| Return | ±0.0 | −0.3 | +2.2 | +1.9 | +0.2 | +0.2 | +4.3 | +4.8 |
| Forehand | −0.5 | +0.5 | −2.9 | −2.8 | −0.1 | +0.9 | +2.5 | +3.3 |
| Backhand | +0.1 | −0.1 | −0.6 | −0.6 | −0.7 | +0.1 | +0.8 | +0.2 |
| Slice | −0.3 | −3.8 | ±0.0 | −4.1 | −0.2 | −3.9 | +0.4 | −3.7 |
| Net | −0.4 | −0.1 | −1.4 | −1.9 | −0.1 | +0.3 | +0.4 | +0.6 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +0.6 | +0.5 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | −1.0 | −3.5 | −1.4 | −5.9 | −0.7 | −2.5 | +10.7 | +7.6 |
Set by set
| Set | Max Purcell | Marton Fucsovics | Net, Max | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −3.8 | +1.2 | −5.0 | |
| 2 | −2.1 | +6.4 | −8.5 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Max Purcell serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 61% 43% | 9% 50% | 30% 71% |
| 2 | 44% 36% | 4% 0% | 52% 46% |
Within sets +1.87 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Marton Fucsovics serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 48% 82% | – | 52% 67% |
| 2 | 53% 75% | 7% 100% | 40% 83% |
Within sets −1.05 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Max Purcell
6.5 points left on the table across 192 shots 3.40 per 100 shots
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.36 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH slice through the middle ×5; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
Marton Fucsovics
5.8 points left on the table across 195 shots 2.97 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.32 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your backhand side hit FH through the middle ×3; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.31 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your middle hit BH through the middle ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts