RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 7 charted matches · 2022–2024

Max Purcell

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 64.0% ±3.3 raw 63.3% · tour 63.4% · 719 points
Return points won 35.4% ±3.3 raw 32.3% · tour 36.6% · 795 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice +0.07 ±0.11 better than 77% of ATP · raw +0.08
Shot selection −0.99 ±0.83 better than 3% of ATP · raw −0.99
Execution −0.38 ±0.69 better than 49% of ATP · raw −0.27
Points left on the table 2.73 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 38% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 3,827 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Max Purcell goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 183 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 33% 38.9%±8.9 47.6%
BH slice crosscourt 24% 43.0%±10.2 42.5%
BH through the middle 15% 43.2%±11.8 43.7%
BH slice through the middle 10% 34.3%±12.7 35.1%
BH down the line 10% 56.0%±13.2 46.4%
BH slice down the line 8% 36.5%±13.6 37.1%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 165 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 35% 37.6%±9.0 46.6%
FH down the line 21% 36.3%±10.7 44.7%
FH slice through the middle 16% 29.6%±11.0 24.5%
FH through the middle 11% 45.5%±13.3 41.5%
FH slice down the line 8% 32.7%±13.2 25.6%
FH slice crosscourt 8% 36.9%±13.8 30.9%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 121 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH slice crosscourt 33% 37.4%±10.3 42.1%
BH crosscourt 22% 48.1%±12.0 48.0%
BH slice through the middle 19% 41.9%±12.4 35.1%
BH through the middle 14% 50.7%±13.5 43.8%
BH down the line 12% 45.0%±14.0 46.5%

Return +1: drive to your backhand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 113 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 28% 41.1%±11.2 46.9%
BH slice crosscourt 23% 37.3%±11.7 40.9%
BH through the middle 18% 29.0%±11.8 43.0%
BH slice through the middle 16% 30.3%±12.3 32.6%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +15 How much less varied Max Purcell's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 62 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 54% 87% ▲ 68% / 73%
Body 9% 7% 63% / 63%
T 37% 7% ▼ 75% / 75%

358 normal · 15 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 44% 51% 77% / 73%
Body 12% 9% 65% / 63%
T 44% 40% 69% / 72%

297 normal · 47 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide55% 62.6%±5.2 n=205 51% ▼
Body9% 59.6%±10.0 n=35 0% ▼
T36% 59.7%±6.3 n=133 49% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.75).
Optimal mix: +0.4 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide45% 70.2%±5.5 n=156 58% ▲
Body11% 61.9%±9.6 n=39 0% ▼
T43% 62.6%±6.0 n=149 42% ▼

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.14).
Optimal mix: +0.7 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.55 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: −6.3±9.6 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (353 repeats, 350 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 32 37% +0.3±10.1
1stAd courtT 116 22% −5.8±5.7
1stAd courtWide 103 20% −7.6±5.7
1stDeuce courtBody 38 38% +1.5±9.7
1stDeuce courtT 107 27% +2.3±6.3
1stDeuce courtWide 120 21% −6.4±5.4
2ndAd courtBody 55 42% −7.2±8.8
2ndAd courtT 18 50% +0.3±11.9
2ndAd courtWide 56 49% +1.1±8.9
2ndDeuce courtBody 71 49% +0.2±8.2
2ndDeuce courtT 53 55% +5.6±9.0
2ndDeuce courtWide 24 47% −1.0±11.2

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Max Purcell's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Not enough data

Return

  1. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, deep used 10.7% · won 45% · +11.8±10.2 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. BH slice crosscourt → BH slice crosscourt used 7.2% · won 37% · −1.9±11.0 vs own baseline
  2. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 8.4% · won 36% · −2.7±10.5 vs own baseline
  3. BH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 6.3% · won 33% · −5.6±11.2 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Max Purcell wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 1.4% · won 40% · −4.5±11.6 vs own baseline · −13.6 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Henri Squire (5/10)
  2. BH through the middle → FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 1.2% · won 36% · −7.7±12.0 vs own baseline · −18.6 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Casper Ruud (2/7)

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

BH to the middle · return+2.1185
Wide 1st serve · ad court+1.4156
T 1st serve · deuce court+0.3133
T 1st serve · ad court−0.3149
BH to their backhand · rally−0.5130

Most exposed to

FH to their backhand · serve +1−2.4120
BH to their backhand · rally−1.9152
T 1st serve · ad court−0.7167
Wide 1st serve · ad court−0.7168
T 1st serve · deuce court+0.5169

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Stefanos Tsitsipas, Brandon Nakashima, Rinky Hijikata, Thiago Seyboth Wild, Jannik Sinner

Charted matches